In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 22nd
US Sends Anti-Personnel Mines to Ukraine, Israel Builds Military Structures in Syria Buffer Zone, and other stories.
US Sends Anti-Personnel Mines to Ukraine
The US Department of Defence confirmed anti-personnel landmines in its $275 million aid package to Ukraine. The package likely includes Area Denial-Artillery-Munitions — M692 and M731 155 mm artillery shells that dispense 36 mines each. Each mine deploys trip wires up to 12 metres and contains fragmenting explosive charges effective to 15 metres. Ukraine previously received 70,000 anti-armour mine shells. While Ukraine is party to the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel mines, the US and Russia are not.
The introduction of anti-personnel mines alters infantry combat dynamics along the front lines. US military aid has progressed from defensive anti-tank weapons to increasingly lethal anti-personnel systems. The mines' deployment alongside existing artillery and cluster munitions expands area denial capabilities against infantry formations. These weapons represent a broader intensification of lethal aid. Despite their limited active duration, the mines' deployment signals military escalation and poses long-term threats, as unexploded ordnance remains dangerous beyond battery depletion.
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Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Double Regional Investment
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan established their Supreme Interstate Council in August 2024, marking increased regional economic integration in Central Asia. The Eurasian Development Bank reports 27 large-scale mutual FDI projects valued at $1.1 billion among Central Asian countries as of 2023, double the 2016 volume. Kazakhstan (87%) and Uzbekistan (13%) emerge as the primary regional investors.
Central Asia's intra-regional investment patterns reveal a strategic shift from traditional external dependency toward regional economic integration. Unlike foreign investments that concentrate on extractive industries, intra-regional capital flows target diverse, high-value sectors including manufacturing, renewable energy, and financial services. The establishment of joint investment funds and cross-border industrial zones demonstrates a mature approach to economic cooperation. This emerging regional economic architecture, led by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, suggests Central Asian states are developing autonomous capacity for development while maintaining strategic independence from larger external powers.
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China Backs Myanmar Junta and Pressures Rebels
China has shifted its stance on Myanmar's civil war, demonstrated by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's November 6 meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Kunming. Beijing has increased pressure on the Three Brotherhood Alliance to cease fighting after they captured significant territory. China closed border crossings to rebel-controlled areas and endorsed the junta's planned 2025 elections under the 2008 constitution.
China's policy shift reflects a strategic calculation, prioritizing regional stability over its previous balanced approach between competing factions. The Three Brotherhood Alliance's autonomous actions, particularly taking Lashio and coordinating with the National Unity Government, triggered Beijing's concerns about losing influence along its border. China's support for the military junta through border closures, diplomatic recognition, and backing of the 2025 elections indicates Beijing views the Tatmadaw as the most viable instrument for maintaining order, despite battlefield setbacks.
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Ukraine Revives Missile Production Program
Ukraine is reviving its Soviet-era missile manufacturing capabilities, with SpetsTekhnoEksport Director Oleksiy Petrov announcing expected production of cruise and ballistic missiles by mid-2025. This builds on Ukraine's historical role in Soviet missile development, including the Iuzhmash and OKB-586 facilities that produced ICBMs. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed international funding for a “large missile program.”
Ukraine's missile program represents a strategic pivot from Western dependency toward indigenous defence capabilities. This revival of dormant Soviet-era expertise allows Ukraine to bypass Western technology restrictions while leveraging historical industrial infrastructure. The development of domestic missile manufacturing, particularly at facilities like Iuzhmash that once produced ICBMs, demonstrates Ukraine's intent to establish autonomous military production capacity. The planned deployment of cruise and ballistic missiles by mid-2025, supported by Western funding, indicates a long-term commitment to building Ukraine's defence-industrial base.
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Israel Builds Military Structures in Syria Buffer Zone
Israel is constructing military developments along the Alpha Line, a demilitarized zone separating Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. 7.4 kilometres of IDF construction activity include ditches and berms, that encroach into the Area of Separation. This violates the 1974 Disengagement Agreement that established peacekeepers in the zone. The IDF states these barriers aim to prevent a “terrorist invasion.”
Israel's construction along the Alpha Line represents a significant alteration of the military status quo that has preserved relative stability since 1974. The IDF's unilateral fortification of this buffer zone, combined with increased airstrikes on Syrian territory, indicates an orchestrated expansion of Israeli military positioning beyond its recognized boundaries. The limited international response, despite clear UNDOF documentation of violations, suggests the eroding effectiveness of UN peacekeeping mechanisms in constraining Israeli ambitions.
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Iran Expands Centrifuge Program After IAEA Censure
Iran has announced plans to activate “new and advanced” centrifuges in direct response to an IAEA board censure resolution. The resolution, supported by 19 member nations and opposed by Russia, China, and Burkina Faso, criticized Iran's lack of cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear sites. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi expressed “deep concern” over undeclared nuclear material at multiple locations, including Varamin and Turquzabad near Tehran.
Iran's deployment of advanced centrifuges directly challenges the IAEA's monitoring capabilities while demonstrating accelerated uranium enrichment capacity. The 19-12-3 IAEA board vote reveals eroding international consensus, with Russia and China's consistent opposition since 2020 providing diplomatic cover for Iran. The discovery of undeclared sites near Tehran indicates Iran maintains a parallel nuclear infrastructure outside international oversight, undermining NPT safeguard agreements. This dual-track approach — limited cooperation on declared sites while expanding undeclared capabilities — allows Iran to advance its program while avoiding complete diplomatic isolation.