In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 3rd
France Uncovers Massive White Hydrogen Deposit, Chinese Investments in Zimbabwe Focused on Mining and Energy, and other stories.
German Chancellor Scholz Explores Energy Ties in Nigeria
German Chancellor Scholz recently visited Nigeria seeking to expand economic ties, especially energy cooperation. Scholz aims to increase LNG imports from Nigeria to Germany as Berlin scrambles to replace Russian gas. He also pushed Nigeria to accept more deportations of its nationals from Germany. Meanwhile, Scholz discussed efforts to stabilize Niger after its military coup last year.
Scholz's energy overtures signify Germany's growing pragmatism as leaders look to secure energy needs. Heightened cooperation could aid Nigeria's gas industry. The migration focus risks straining ties given Nigerian sensitivities. Supporting ECOWAS without pushing democratization in Niger shows geopolitical aims still trump governance concerns for Berlin. Pursuing narrow interests while backsliding on principles could damage Germany's reputation in Africa. Scholz must take care to avoid the appearance of selective engagement driven purely by the Ukraine crisis.
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Geopolitical Realignment Rattles Horn of Africa
The Israel-Hamas conflict has destabilized the fragile security architecture of the Horn of Africa. It has emboldened Islamist groups like Somalia's al-Shabaab while forcing key states to recalibrate ties. The war has also intensified great power competition in the Red Sea basin, with regional heavyweights like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt jockeying for position. Meanwhile, the United States and Europe seem detached, ceding influence to assertive Middle Eastern actors.
The Horn of Africa risks becoming collateral damage in this realignment. As external powers cynically pursue narrow interests, hard-won multilateral cooperation mechanisms are unravelling. States like Ethiopia and Sudan are drifting into further conflict amid shifting external patronage. For vulnerable populations already beset by war and famine, the prospects are dimming. Unless the US and Europe rediscover concern for peace and human rights, the region will descend deeper into violence and lawlessness. Africa is learning the costs of an international order where might dictates right.
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France Uncovers Massive White Hydrogen Deposit
A recent discovery in France of an extensive reserve of naturally occurring white hydrogen has the potential to disrupt the energy transition. The deposit found in northeastern France may contain up to 250 million metric tons, making it one of the largest white hydrogen reserves ever discovered. This discovery boosts the prospects for inexpensive hydrogen extraction, providing a possibly revolutionary climate-friendly energy source.
The white hydrogen could ameliorate Europe's energy security challenges and reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports. But its impacts remain uncertain pending economic extraction techniques. If viable, it would scramble competition in emerging hydrogen industries. White hydrogen's advantages could make it a rival to renewable-based green hydrogen. But its environmental impacts would require study as well. The French find elevates white hydrogen as a potentially transfromative resource in clean energy transitions.
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European Energy Companies Storing Gas in Ukraine
With gas storage nearly full, EU energy companies are increasingly turning to Ukraine's vast storage capacity to hold excess reserves. Despite the war, Ukraine's low costs and import incentives have made its underground facilities attractive overflow options. This helps hedge against supply risks, though cold snaps could still strain reserves.
The gas storage dynamic reveals Europe's scramble to ensure supply. While inventories are ample for now, demand spikes or shocks could expose lingering vulnerability. Ukraine's cooperation aids EU energy security but may come at the cost of heightened military risk. Russia could see the gas reserves as credible assets to target. Meanwhile, Europe and Ukraine's interdependence will deepen, complicating any future settlement. While beneficial in the near-term, the gas storage workaround may have disruptive strategic consequences.
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Chinese Investments in Zimbabwe Focused on Mining and Energy
Chinese companies received licenses for major investments in Zimbabwe in the third quarter, predominantly in mining and energy. The $2.79 billion in approved Chinese projects represents a huge jump from last year's total. Zimbabwe aims to tap its substantial lithium reserves to supply China's battery industry. Chinese firms are also financing power plants as Zimbabwe struggles with electricity shortages. The mining focus reflects China's demand for minerals and metals.
The surge of planned Chinese investment could provide an economic boost for Zimbabwe. The energy investments support Zimbabwe's efforts to overcome chronic power deficits, with much of the country's energy generation healivly reliant on coal. China's interests likely lie in securing mineral resources. Zimbabwe faces the challenge of leveraging the investments to diversify its economy while mitigating adverse ecological effects. Managing its strategic relations with China will test Zimbabwe's negotiating leverage as well.
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Report Warns of Eroding US Military Dominance
A new report warns that after decades of military dominance, the United States now faces a crisis of “insolvent” defence strategy and eroding capability advantages. Wargames show the US failing objectives like defending Taiwan against China due to lost superiority in key technologies like sensing and precision weapons. Rivals like can now impose much higher costs on US forces. This jeopardizes deterrence and could enable unfavorable fait accompli scenarios.
To reverse the erosion, the report advocates posture changes like more dispersed Western Pacific forces and European mobile missile units. It also urges networked sensor grids using new affordable platforms to overwhelm enemy targeting. Plus, larger stockpiles of specialized standoff weapons are needed to defeat rivals without supremacy. The recommendations signify overdue adaptation to the end of uncontested US military dominance. Yet implementation would require sustained investment and innovative operational concepts.