In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 25th
Turkey and Russia Negotiating Military Operation in Northern Syria, The Philippines Accuses China of Stealing Rocket Debris, and other stories.
Turkey and Russia Negotiating Military Operation in Northern Syria
Turkish and Russian officials are said to be in the middle of negotiating the details of Turkey’s seemingly imminent military operation to remove Syrian Kurdish fighters from the west side of the Euphrates river.
Earlier this week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) with a ground operation in response to the deadly Istanbul bombing that Ankara alleges was perpetrated by individuals linked to the YPG. The US and Russia have urged restraint from Turkey, with both countries cautious about the potential fallout of Turkish military operations in an already fragile region.
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The EP Approves €18 Billion Loan for Ukraine’s 2023 Budget
Members of the European Parliament have given their approval to a proposal advanced by the European Commission (EC) earlier this month that promises a loan of 18 billion euros for Ukraine’s 2023 national budget.
The 18 billion euros will pay for almost a half of Ukraine's projected 2023 budget. The EC's proposal states that the funds will be used toward supporting macroeconomic stability, rebuilding critical infrastructure, and pay for the operation of essential public services. The EU loan is expected to be repaid in quarterly instalments, with consistency and predictability in repayment a part of the conditions attached to the loan. Ukraine will also need to more closely align its institutions with those of the EU as it prepares for EU membership.
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Fighting in the DRC Resumes as M23 Rebels Reject Ceasefire
Fighting resumed between troops in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23 rebels in the country’s east on Friday, as the armed group said a ceasefire deal between African leaders “doesn’t really concern” them.
The Tutsi-led M23 group is waging a serious offensive in eastern DRC, further destabilising an area where multiple armed groups have sought control over land and resources for decades. The ceasefire deal brokered between African leaders in Luanda last week had called for the withdrawal of the rebels from “occupied zones” and their “withdrawal to their initial positions,” however, the rebels have shown little indication they will adhere to the ceasefire.
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The Philippines Accuses China of Stealing Rocket Debris
The Philippines has sought an official explanation from China after a Chinese coast guard vessel reportedly seized Chinese rocket debris from Filipino navy personnel in the South China Sea
In a statement reported by the Philippine News Agency, Vice Adm. Alberto Carlos, the commander of Philippine’s Western Command, said that its sailors had spotted metallic debris drifting off the coast of Thitu Island and sought to retrieve it. On the way back, a China Coast Guard vessel is said to have approached and subsequently blocked their course twice. The Chinese vessel then “forcefully retrieved” the debris by cutting the Filipino towline.
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Azerbaijan Cancels Talks with Armenia over French Involvement
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has called off a four-way meeting with his Armenian counterpart. The meeting was set to be mediated by French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council head Charles Michel in Brussels, but Baku now demands the removal of Macron as a mediator.
Azerbaijan accuses France of backing Armenia in the two countries' decades-long conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. As the talks approach, Aliyev has accused the Armenian Prime Minister of trying to undercut the next stage of talks by insisting on France as a broker in negotiations. Armenia’s foreign ministry has expressed an interest to dialogue involving Macron and Michel, yet Aliyev claims Macron has “attacked Azerbaijan” by adopting an “anti-Azerbaijan position” that is “insulting” to Baku.