In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 18th
US Arms and Ammunition Shortages, Israel Stabilizing Regional Ties after Improving Relations with Turkey, and other stories.
US Arms and Ammunition Shortages
The US military has depleted considerable stocks of precision munitions and artillery shells after providing large sums of materiel to Ukraine. However, the Pentagon has recently made clear that it will not part with many more weapons transfers if the country's strategic reserves are threatened.
Sources within the Defense Department have revealed that the US military is now running critically low on some of the weapons that have been the central to Ukraine's war effort. The officials specifically named Stinger man-portable air defense missiles, AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, guided multiple launch rocket systems, and Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, as well as artillery shells. Now, Washington's ability to replenish them quickly has become problematic.
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Russia’s Defence Industry Experiencing Turbulence
Russia has made attempts to restore at least part of the arms and ammunition already spent in Ukraine after almost nine months of its bloody war. Publicly, Moscow declares that nothing serious is impeding these re-production efforts and that the Russian defence industry factories will have no problem increasing their productivity. However, sanctions are beginning to impact Russia's ability to reinforce more advanced systems.
The Russian defence industry suffers from a severe personnel gap, estimated to be around 400,000 workers short. Another major challenge is the average production rate of the Russian defence industry. In particular, Russia's ability to produce fighter aircraft, attack helicopters and multiple-launch rocket systems appears limited for the foreseeable future, putting into question Moscow's ambitions to fully reinforce its armed forces fighting in Ukraine.
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Five NATO Carrier Strike Groups Operating Simultaneously in Europe
Five separate aircraft carrier strike groups from four different NATO member countries are currently sailing in bodies of water around Europe. The alliance says that these simultaneous deployments provide a valuable opportunity to demonstrate alliance procedures for coordinating disparate activities of a large number of major naval assets in preparation for a theatre-wide conflict.
The US Navy's Ford is anchored in the Solent, a strait that lies between Great Britain and the Isle of Wight. The US Navy's Nimitz class carrier USS George H.W. Bush is operating in the Adriatic Sea as part of its scheduled deployment, with a stated mission to “defend U.S., allied and partner interests.” The UK has sent the Royal Navy's carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth into the North Sea as part of a broader military operation, Op Achillean. The Italian aircraft carrier ITS Cavour is deployed to the Mediterranean. The French carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, had left its homeport in Toulon to take part in Mission Antares.
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Kenya and Rwanda Agree to Ceasefire in the DRC
According to the East African Community, Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Rwandan leader Paul Kagame have agreed on the need for M23 rebels to cease fire and withdraw from captured territories in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
M23 rebels have made considerable gains in recent weeks, advancing towards Goma as fighting with government forces intensifies. The M23 rebels seized vast swathes of territory in 2012 and briefly overran Goma before being driven out by Congolese and UN forces the following year. The M23 rebel group then signed a peace deal in 2013, under which its fighters were integrated into the DRC army.
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Israel Stabilizing Regional Ties after Improving Relations with Turkey
Israel has formed a strong partnership with Greece and Cyprus over the past decade, especially as ties with Turkey were deteriorating. Israel’s cooperation with Athens and Nicosia includes joint military exercises, intelligence cooperation and more.
Yet with ties between Israel and Turkey now warming, leaders in Greece and Cyprus are cautious on what such a rapprochement might mean for regional stability. The outgoing Israeli defence minister has been spending his final days in office trying to stabilize Israel’s regional ties. A visit to Greece should also be viewed in the context of the Israeli rapprochement with Turkey over the past year, prompting senior Israeli officials to reassure Greece that relations with Ankara would remain measured and limited in scope.
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