In Geopolitics Today: Friday, November 29th
US Deploys HIMARS to Japanese Island, Gulf States Bridge Global Power Divide, and other stories.
Iran Ships Oil to China via Malaysian Waters
A vast ship-to-ship transfer operation centred 64 kilometres off Malaysia's coast has emerged as a key hub for Iranian oil exports to China, processing an estimated 350 million barrels worth over $20 billion in the first nine months of 2024. This maritime network employs ageing tankers under flags of convenience, operating without insurance, to conduct transfers beyond standard monitoring systems. The operation's location in international waters creates deliberate jurisdictional ambiguity.
The scale of these transfers exposes the limitations of Western sanctions in controlling maritime trade. Despite Western diplomatic pressure on Malaysia, the network has proven remarkably resilient through its sophisticated use of intermediaries and shell companies. This shields major Chinese firms from secondary sanctions while maintaining Iranian crude flows — now estimated at 13% of China's oil imports. The hub's success demonstrates how parallel maritime trading systems can effectively bypass US-dominated financial and shipping controls when other powers are determined to maintain trade relationships.
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US Deploys HIMARS to Japanese Island
Japan and the United States have agreed to deploy HIMARS missile systems on Yonaguni island in late 2024, positioning precision strike capabilities just 108 kilometres from Taiwan. This strategic placement puts potential Chinese invasion routes within range of ATACMS missiles, which can reach targets up to 306 kilometres away.
Current U.S. ATACMS stockpiles are split between Ukraine operations and Taiwan's delayed order for 11 HIMARS launchers. Production of these missiles ended years ago, with only a life-extension program maintaining inventory until the replacement PrSM missile enters service in 2025. Japan has meanwhile deployed its own Type 12 anti-ship missiles on Yonaguni, though these lack the mobility and combat record of HIMARS. The decision represents the most significant military deployment to Japan's westernmost island, positioning precision strike capabilities near key maritime corridors.
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Sweden Seeks Chinese Ship Entry After Cable Cuts
Swedish authorities escalated the Baltic Sea cable investigation by formally requesting Chinese cooperation after two key data lines were severed near the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3. The damaged infrastructure includes the Finland-Germany and Lithuania-Sweden cables, both critical for regional telecommunications. Prime Minister Kristersson has specifically asked China to allow inspection of the Yi Peng 3, currently anchored in international waters between Sweden and Denmark, while Finnish, Swedish, and German investigators pursue a multi-nation probe.
This marks the third undersea cable disruption in Swedish waters since 2023, occurring in a strategically sensitive maritime corridor as NATO expands its Baltic presence. China's initial response — claiming no knowledge while asserting navigation rights — creates a direct jurisdictional challenge for Swedish investigators. The coordinated regional response, including Poland's public backing of Swedish authorities, suggests these states are treating this as a serious security incident rather than a technical malfunction. German defence assessments pointing to potential sabotage add further weight to the diplomatic stand-off.
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Gulf States Bridge Global Power Divide
The Arab Gulf states are executing a sophisticated “bridging” strategy that transcends traditional alliance structures, positioning themselves as vital connectors in an increasingly fragmented global order. This is evidenced by their recent actions: Saudi Arabia hosted 40-nation Ukraine peace talks in August 2023, the UAE has facilitated 19 Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchanges, and GCC states are simultaneously pursuing trade deals with China and Western powers while maintaining energy relationships across geopolitical divides.
This strategic pivot represents more than hedging against US decline — it's an ambitious bid to become indispensable intermediaries in a multipolar world. The Gulf states are leveraging their unique position: maintaining security ties with the US while deepening economic engagement with China (their largest oil market) and cooperating with Russia through OPEC+. Despite US pressure over Russian financial flows and Chinese tech cooperation, they calculate that their role as connectors between rival powers offers greater long-term advantages than traditional alignment. This strategy is particularly potent given their control of critical energy resources and significant financial capacity, allowing them to insert themselves into emerging supply chains and financial architectures.
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Syrian Rebels Breach Aleppo
Syrian rebel forces have entered Aleppo city from its southwestern outskirts, marking their first presence in Syria's commercial capital since 2016. HTS leader Mohamed Bashir confirmed the advance as videos emerged showing rebel units inside city limits. The insurgents have severed the M5 highway connecting Damascus to Aleppo and seized the strategic junction with the M4 coastal route.
This penetration of Aleppo's defences reveals a potentially fatal weakening of Assad's strategic depth. With Russia preoccupied in Ukraine and Iranian proxies degraded by Israeli strikes, Damascus lacks the external military support that previously guaranteed its urban strongholds. The rapid collapse of Aleppo's outer defences suggests the government's forces may be more broadly hollow, having relied too heavily on Russian air support and Iranian-backed militias rather than developing robust independent capabilities. Most critically, the rebels' successful interdiction of major highways threatens to isolate army positions across northern Syria, potentially triggering a cascade of territorial losses if Assad cannot quickly marshal support from his distracted allies.
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Israel Dismantles Iran's Proxy Networks
Iran faces an unprecedented erosion of its regional power projection capabilities in early 2024, with Israeli operations systematically dismantling its proxy network across multiple fronts. The reported eliminations of Hassan Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyeh, and IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi represent not just leadership losses, but expose critical vulnerabilities in Iran's intelligence security. Most significantly, Israel's apparent penetration of IRGC-protected safe houses in Tehran itself and the reported strike on the Parchin nuclear facility demonstrate Iran's defensive vulnerabilities.
Iran's diplomatic pivot — particularly Foreign Minister Araghchi's explicit denial of nuclear weapons ambitions and acceptance of IAEA enrichment constraints — reveals a stark recalculation of its strategic position. This is not mere tactical flexibility but recognition that its “ring of fire” strategy of pressuring Israel through proxies has backfired, leaving Iran more exposed than at any point since 1979. The intensified outreach to GCC states, while partially successful in diplomatic terms, underscores Iran's defensive posture as it seeks regional buffers against renewed US pressure. With its nuclear facilities vulnerable, proxy networks degraded, and internal IRGC operations compromised, Iran faces the prospect of negotiating from a position of weakness ahead of the JCPOA's expiration.