In Geopolitics Today: Friday, October 27th
Turkish President Takes Stance Supportive of Hamas, Urban Warfare Awaits Israel in Gaza, and other stories.
USAID Funding Commitments to Central Asian Nations
USAID Administrator Samantha Power has announced new funding commitments during a ministerial meeting with Central Asian nations. The United States pledged over $14 million in regional programming and $18.7 million specifically for Uzbekistan. This builds on recent US investments in the region, part of growing engagement with Central Asia amid competition with Russia and China.
At the meeting, Power emphasized the potential for Central Asia to drive progress through trade and interconnection. Increased US support aims to boost sovereignty in Central Asia, providing an alternative economic partner to dominant powers in the region. The funding announcements reflect US aspirations for Central Asia to act as a bridge between economic blocs, rather than fall under the influence of either China or Russia. But US-backed reforms have been uneven, and regional states face difficult balancing acts amid geopolitical tensions. Managing multifaceted relationships will remain the region's defining challenge.
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Turkish President Takes Stance Supportive of Hamas
Turkish President Erdoğan this week openly embraced Hamas by calling the group a patriotic liberation movement. His remarks mark a definitive shift from earlier muted reactions to the conflict. Erdoğan vowed Turkey would not allow the killing of Palestinian children and cancelled plans to visit Israel. The comments may play to Erdoğan's domestic base, but will complicate the process of mending ties with Israel.
Erdoğan's staunch defence of Hamas will inflame tensions with Israel and the West. It risks undermining economic recovery efforts dependent on foreign capital. Domestically, such rhetoric allows Erdoğan to assert leadership over Islamist rivals also seeking to champion the Palestinian cause. But this comes at the expense of a pragmatic foreign policy, with Erdoğan seemingly willing to gamble long-term relationships.
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US Conducts Strikes on Militia Facilities in Syria
The United States conducted strikes in Syria, targeting facilities linked to Iranian-backed militias. The US framed the strikes as defensive and warned of potential further action if attacks persist. They come amid expanded US forces in the region and efforts to deter Iran amid the Israel-Hamas crisis.
The strikes reflect a desire by the US to protect troops without inflaming regional tensions. But retaliation by Iranian proxies could further entangle the US militarily. As the Israel-Gaza conflict raises instability, Washington faces challenges balancing military signalling, alliance commitments, and diplomacy. Strong US messaging is being aired with urgent diplomacy to prevent worsening violence or conflict contagion. With Middle East volatility reaching multi-decade highs, deft crisis management will be essential to avoid uncontrolled escalation.
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Iraq's Shift Towards Recentralization Sparks Tensions
Iraq is undergoing a process of political recentralization as dominant Shia factions in Baghdad seek to consolidate federal power. This diverges from Iraq's US-imposed 2005 Constitution that established a federal system with significant powers decentralized to autonomous regions. But Sunni Arab and Kurdish groups oppose centralized control, viewing it as undermining their interests and influence.
Efforts aimed at recentralization encompass a range of economic, legal, and security measures, which have the potential to diminish the autonomy of the Kurdish regions. This process, however, carries the risk of alienating significant segments of Iraqi society while simultaneously bolstering the influence of Shia groups. Such a scenario could lead to an escalation in domestic instability and violence, particularly given the backdrop of recurrent United States and Israeli actions targeting Shia militias in the region. Additionally, it presents the danger of entangling Iraq in regional conflicts that are unrelated to its national interests.
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Belt and Road Initiative Plans for Deep-Water Port in Kyaukpyu
China aims to develop a deep-water port and economic zone in Kyaukpyu, Myanmar under its Belt and Road Initiative. The strategic location could boost trade links between China's Yunnan province and the Indian Ocean. With few alternative investors, Myanmar relies on infrastructure financed by Chinese companies. Kyaukpyu Port would enhance Beijing's regional connectivity.
Kyaukpyu Port exemplifies the complex dynamics surrounding BRI projects. For China, it holds economic and strategic appeal in expanding maritime access. But host nations often balance need for investment against sovereignty concerns. Though scaled-back, the Kyaukpyu Port project remains controversial in Myanmar. Beijing must tread carefully in advancing its connectivity ambitions without inflaming local opposition. Projects like Kyaukpyu will test the balance between Chinese strategic interests and host country agency.
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Urban Warfare Awaits Israel in Gaza
If Israel launches a ground offensive into Gaza, its troops can expect to participate in urban warfare, given the dense population and terrain. This could lead Israel to utilize sieges of cities or areas to slowly pressure Hamas. But urban combat would negate some of Israel's conventional military advantages. Israel argues sieges adhering to humanitarian provisions are legal. Mass displacement of Gazans could raise proportionality issues.
Urban warfare and sieges in Gaza will present complex legal and ethical dilemmas. Israel insists it follows international law on military necessity and protection of civilians. But legal provisions still allow difficult gray areas. Heavy urban combat with embedded Hamas fighters blurs lines between civilian and military targets. Well-intended precautions may still fail to prevent civilian harm given conditions. A grinding siege amid block-by-block urban warfare could degrade Israel's legitimacy. Even limited manoeuvres could produce significant collateral damage.