In Geopolitics Today: Friday, October 13th
US and Qatar Again Suspend Access to Iranian Frozen Funds, France and Mongolia Forge Uranium Mining Deal, and other stories.
US and Qatar Again Suspend Access to Iranian Frozen Funds
The US and Qatar have reportedly agreed to halt Iran's access to $6 billion in frozen funds, despite a recent deal allowing their use for humanitarian purposes. The shift follows uproar over potential Iranian links to the Hamas attack on Israel. Though no evidence shows direct Iranian involvement, decades of Tehran's support to Hamas fuelled criticism of unfreezing the assets. The reversal aims to avoid a political liability, but risks damaging US credibility.
The episode shows geopolitical shocks can instantly reshape complex negotiations. What Iran saw as reclaiming funds for aid is now cast as empowering terrorism. Rightly or not, optics eclipse nuance in crises. Still, the US must weigh interests beyond reactions. Alienating Iran while seeking its compliance on nuclear issues is counterproductive. And going back on deals undermines trust in the US as a partner. Core challenges like preventing nuclear proliferation demand consistent strategy despite surrounding turmoil.
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Turkey, Ukraine, and Bulgaria Collaborate to Clear Black Sea Mines
Turkey, Ukraine, and Bulgaria have agreed to establish a mechanism to clear sea mines in the Black Sea. The move follows an earlier proposal between Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria for a joint demining force. It aims to address spillover risks from the war like drifting mines while avoiding escalation. But Ankara treads carefully, still opposing direct NATO involvement in the Black Sea.
The evolving security collaboration highlights NATO's challenge in shoring up vulnerable southeastern flanks while deterring Russian aggression. Collective defence must adapt to the widening war's ripple effects. But consensus fractures over direct intervention. Turkey's balancing act also constrains alliance options. Still, targeted cooperation like demining shows pragmatic mitigation is possible. However, preventing future spillover will require resolving the conflict's root causes before they irreparably rupture regional stability.
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EU Plans Investigations into China's Metal Sectors
The European Union is reportedly planning to launch investigations into China's steel and aluminium sectors over allegations of unfair subsidies, a move that could result in tariffs on Chinese imports. This comes as part of a broader agreement between the EU and the US to resolve existing American tariffs on European steel and aluminium. The EU's inquiry would target overcapacity and subsidization in China's metals industries, which Brussels argues have distorted global markets. China has already warned the EU against taking action against its steel sector, arguing it would disrupt international trade.
The impending EU trade probes have critical strategic implications. For China, tariffs would hurt its dominant steel and aluminium exporters, while also threatening growth in strategic sectors like electric vehicles. More broadly, the investigations signify hardening European attitudes towards China. For the EU, the moves represent efforts to protect domestic producers from allegedly unfair Chinese competition. However, retaliation from Beijing in the form of its own tariffs or restrictions cannot be ruled out either. Ultimately, the EU's investigations form part of a recalibration of its economic relationship with China to address overdependence and reduce vulnerabilities.
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NATO's Expanding Reach Has Geopolitical Implications
NATO is expanding its cooperation frameworks worldwide, including outreach to countries like Jordan, Indonesia, and India. A NATO-Indonesia meeting was recently held between Indonesian and NATO officials. NATO also sent a delegation to Jordan to discuss a potential liaison office there. Some NATO diplomats have suggested Brazil and South Africa as other potential partners. This comes as NATO seeks to weaken Russia and China. However, some prospective partners like India have reacted coolly to closer NATO ties, wanting to maintain strategic autonomy.
NATO's global outreach has far-reaching geopolitical implications. It aims to extend Western military alignment beyond NATO's traditional Euro-Atlantic sphere. But this risks provoking rival powers like Russia and China, as they see Western alliances encroaching into their domains of influence. Prospective NATO partners may also hesitate, not wanting to damage ties with Russia or China. Meanwhile, structures like the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization are expanding too. This reflects a wider trend of growing global competition. As NATO goes global, it is reinforcing a bifurcation of the world into competing blocs. But much depends on how receptive NATO's potential partners are to closer ties with the military alliance.
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France and Mongolia Forge Uranium Mining Deal
France and Mongolia have signed a framework deal potentially worth 1.6 billion euros that allows French nuclear firm Orano to operate a new uranium mine in Mongolia. This comes as Mongolia seeks to diversify its strategic relationships beyond neighbouring Russia and China under its “Third Neighbour” policy. The two sides also agreed to cooperate on lithium exploration.
The uranium mining agreement has important strategic implications. For Mongolia, it cements a key partnership with France as Ulaanbaatar tries to balance ties with Beijing and Moscow. For France, it diversifies uranium supply as concerns grow over reliance on a few major producers like Kazakhstan. Broader cooperation on mining and clean energy also binds Paris and Ulaanbaatar closer together. However, ecological impacts and local sentiments regarding foreign mining projects could create hurdles when operations begin.
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Armenia Absent at CIS Summit
The latest Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit is taking place in Kyrgyzstan without Armenia's participation. Armenia announced it would not attend the summit or joint CIS military exercises. Ties have frayed over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and decisions made by Armenia's pro-West government. Meanwhile, other CIS states aim to advance economic and security cooperation at the summit, though some observe a crisis within the bloc.
Armenia's boycott highlights growing divides between Yerevan and Moscow, its historical ally. It reflects Armenia's mounting frustrations with Russian-dominated structures like the CIS and CSTO amid perceived indifference to its security concerns. However, completely abandoning these alignments risks isolating Armenia even further and inviting more Azerbaijani pressure. For Russia, it represents the erosion of its influence in a key sphere. Broader CIS cohesion may also suffer if rifts between member states persist. As orientations shift, the summit captures wider uncertainties surrounding the post-Soviet political and strategic space.