In Geopolitics Today: Friday, October 20th
Turkey Asserts its Position in Emerging Eurasian Trade Routes, Australia Keeps 99-Year Lease of Darwin Port Under Chinese Control, and other stories.
Japanese Seafood Industry Suffers Economic Blow
Japan has initiated a second round of releasing treated radioactive wastewater from the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean. This decision has sparked retaliatory measures from China and Russia, both of which have banned seafood imports from Japan. The trade embargoes and associated reputational damage have taken a toll on the Japanese fishing sector.
The consequences of these actions have been significant, particularly for Japan's seafood industry, as China represents a crucial market, accounting for 40% of Japan's seafood exports. In August alone, Japan's seafood sales to China plummeted by a staggering 76%, dealing a severe economic blow to the nation. Japanese seafood companies are grappling with substantial losses due to reduced access to one of their top markets. Meanwhile, local fishermen are deeply concerned about the lasting effects of the Fukushima disaster on their livelihoods. In response, Prime Minister Kishida has pledged financial support to aid struggling fishermen while vehemently protesting the ban as unjustified.
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Turkey Asserts its Position in Emerging Eurasian Trade Routes
Turkey is moving assertively to strengthen overland transport links that place it in a central position amid shifts in Eurasian trade routes. Ankara fears being bypassed by emerging corridors like the proposed India-Middle East-Europe path. Thus, Turkey is championing alternatives like the Iraq Development Road connecting Europe to the Gulf via Turkey. The urgency reflects Turkey's historical sensitivity about its strategic location. Ankara is also open to collaborating, but wants Turkey firmly embedded in any new trade networks.
Turkey's infrastructure push demonstrates the interplay of geography, economics and political power. Ankara fears strategic marginalization if major trade flows shift elsewhere. By cementing its centrality, Turkey hopes to boost economic growth and expand its influence. However, regional tensions pose hurdles from security threats to frozen conflicts. But with creative diplomacy, linking emerging and traditional networks can maximize benefits. The Middle Corridor's success will hinge on advancing regional reconciliation. Bridging East and West remains Turkey's enduring quest, locked within its geographic DNA.
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Israel-Hamas Conflict Escalation and Rising Radicalism
The latest flare-up in violence between Israel and Hamas are likely to give rise to radicalism. While Israel aims to decisively defeat Hamas, past campaigns demonstrate the limits of military force alone to uproot extremism. The bloodshed seems likely to fuel anti-Israel sentiment and radicalize a new generation of Palestinian fighters.
This cycle underscores how unresolved conflicts spawn extremism over time. Even if Hamas' capabilities degrade, Palestinian aspirations remain, requiring a broader solution. The violence has strained relations, reversing any bridge-building efforts. With no political settlement in sight, risks grow of recurrent conflict and radicalization. While military force has some successes against extremists, its overuse often backfires by perpetuating cycles of violence. Breaking these cycles requires coupling security approaches with conflict resolution.
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UN Arms Embargo on Iran Expires
The UN arms embargo on Iran has officially lapsed, a direct outcome of the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal. Simultaneously, the United States introduced a fresh round of sanctions aimed at Iran's ballistic missile and drone program, ensuring that many of the prior restrictions remain in effect.
While the Biden administration has undertaken efforts to restore the terms of the nuclear deal, his administration's inability to do so has culminated in the expiration of these sanctions. This development not only empowers Iran's capacity to provide ballistic missiles and advanced drone technologies to its partners, both regionally and beyond, but also carries implications for the Middle East's security landscape. The US' imposition of new sanctions on the very same day as the embargo's expiration serves as a strategic move to maintain certain limits on Iran's missile and drone programs.
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US Navy's Plan to Integrate Unmanned Vessels Faces Challenges
The United States Navy plans to incorporate more unmanned vessels into its fleet, with a goal of having 40% of the force unmanned by 2050. However, its strategy for unmanned ships remains vague, lacking details on their intended missions and contributions to sea power. The Navy has emphasized that unmanned ships will be cheaper and reduce risks to sailors. There are concerns about an over-reliance on immature technology.
As the US Navy pursues this pivot toward unmanned ships, greater strategic clarity is needed on their exact purposes and limitations. The utility of unmanned platforms seems strongest for missions like long-endurance intelligence gathering. However, it is less evident for missions like deterrence and sea control that may still require manned warships. And if unmanned ships remain less survivable in combat, the Navy risks mission degradation if they are more vulnerable than their manned counterparts. As costs mount, a more sceptical eye toward the unmanned vision seems warranted.
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Australia Keeps 99-Year Lease of Darwin Port Under Chinese Control
The Australian government has decided to retain the 99-year lease of the strategic Darwin Port held by a Chinese company, despite longstanding pressure by the United States. Darwin is near an Australian military base hosting American forces, and Washington worries the Chinese control of the port facilities could enable espionage operations.
Though acknowledging the risks, Australia concluded the current regulatory system sufficiently mitigates them. The decision reveals Australia's balancing act between economic ties with China and the alliance with the US amid intense strategic competition. While trying to avoid escalation, Australia remains under pressure to restrict Chinese investments in strategic infrastructure. The Darwin Port case highlights a persistent point of tensions. As Australia navigates its relationships with both powers, it will likely face recurring controversy over Chinese investment's implications for national security.