In Geopolitics Today: Friday, September 1st
US Approves Military Aid for Taiwan Under Sovereign State Program, Japan Requests Record Defence Budget, and other stories.
North Korea's Potential Arms Deal with Russia
Recent reports of high-level discussions between North Korea and Russia indicate an imminent sale of weapons to support Moscow's war effort in Ukraine. These negotiations, which may continue for months, could involve North Korea providing Russia with various types of artillery ammunition and raw materials. Such a deal could have multifaceted implications for the involved parties and the broader global landscape.
North Korea's potential provision of artillery and ammunition to Russia's war effort in Ukraine could help sustain the conflict and exert pressure on Western nations to engage in negotiations. It would enable Russia to maintain its military operations while avoiding the need for wider-scale mobilization. This development is unlikely to result in a sudden mass offensive by Russia, but could prolong the conflict. For North Korea, such an arms deal could offer a source of funds, food, and energy, reducing its traditional dependence on China. It could also signal a shift in North Korea's economic and strategic alignment toward Russia, prompting China to engage more actively with Pyongyang.
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US Approves Military Aid for Taiwan Under Sovereign State Program
The United States has approved an $80 million military aid package for Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, typically used for sovereign states, marking the first time such assistance has been provided directly to Taipei. This move is likely to raise tensions with Beijing, which considers Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring it under Chinese control.
This decision by the US underscores its strategic commitment to Taiwan's security. It also serves as a signal to Beijing that the US remains deeply engaged in the region and willing to support Taiwan's defence. It notably challenges traditional interpretations of the One China policy, which holds that there is only one China, and both Beijing and Taipei claim to be its legitimate government. The US has long adhered to the policy by maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan while formally recognizing the People's Republic of China. However, providing military aid directly to Taiwan under the FMF program moves beyond the typical boundaries of the policy, indicating a shift in how the US navigates its relationship with both entities.
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Brazil's Oil Boom Continues
Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is maintaining support for Brazil's oil industry despite recent controversy. Lula recently backed Petrobras' plan to drill in the ecologically sensitive Foz do Amazonas Basin near the mouth of the Amazon River, triggering global backlash. The move comes as Brazil's oil production hits record levels, positioning the country to potentially become the world's fourth-largest oil producer.
Analysis: Brazil's oil sector remains a critical component of its economy, and the country's significant offshore pre-salt oil basins continue to drive impressive production growth. Petrobras, with substantial government ownership, is heavily investing in expanding production from these fields. The country's pre-salt oil, known for its low sulphur content and ease of refining into cleaner fuels, has gained popularity in global markets, particularly in Asia. This demand, combined with competitive breakeven costs, has attracted foreign energy majors to invest in offshore Brazil. Despite controversies and efforts to increase government revenue from the oil industry, Brazil is on track to become the world's fourth-largest oil producer, further solidifying its position in the global energy landscape.
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Communication Strain Between Israel and US Persists
Communication channels between Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and the Biden administration remain strained, with Israeli Cabinet ministers still prohibited from meeting their American counterparts in Washington. This tension was evident during Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's recent visit to New York, where he deliberately avoided Washington and Pentagon officials under Netanyahu's directive.
Analysis: The strained ties between Israel and the U.S., reflected in the ban on high-level Israeli visits to Washington, continue to have implications for bilateral relations. While defence establishments on both sides maintain contact through various channels, the absence of high-level meetings and the long-awaited Biden-Netanyahu summit suggest a lack of momentum in this crucial partnership. The upcoming meeting between Biden and Netanyahu is expected to be pivotal, but scheduling challenges highlight the complex dynamics at play.
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Japan Requests Record Defence Budget
Japan's Defense Ministry has submitted a request for a record defence budget of $52.9 billion for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2024. The budget proposal emphasizes the acquisition of naval vessels, including Aegis system-equipped vessels to enhance ballistic missile defence capabilities, as well as frigates. Additionally, Japan is investing in the development of advanced weapons, including hypersonic projectiles and missiles.
Japan's continued allocation of record defence budgets reflects its commitment to modernizing its military capabilities in the face of regional security challenges, including North Korea's missile threats and China's expanding military presence. The focus on naval assets and advanced weaponry highlights Japan's efforts to bolster its maritime security and stand-off attack capabilities. The acquisition of Aegis-equipped vessels and investments in hypersonic technology underscore Japan's dedication to countering evolving security threats. Moreover, Japan's ongoing collaboration with international defence firms, such as Lockheed Martin and Kongsberg, demonstrates its commitment to enhancing its defence capabilities through both domestic and foreign acquisitions.
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Philippine Military Suspends Cadet Exchanges with China
The Philippine military has temporarily suspended sending cadets to China following recent incidents in the disputed South China Sea. This decision was made in response to a China Coast Guard vessel blocking and firing a water cannon at a Philippine navy-chartered supply boat near Second Thomas Shoal. The suspension of cadet exchanges serves as a diplomatic signal and underscores the challenges of balancing economic interests with security concerns for the Philippines.
Tensions in the South China Sea have escalated, particularly since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in June 2022. The Philippines has historically balanced its relationship with China, focusing on economic ties while addressing maritime and territorial disputes. However, incidents like these strain bilateral relations and push the Philippines closer to its security alliance with the United States. The suspension of cadet exchanges highlights the Philippines' growing concern over China's actions in the South China Sea and its determination to protect its sovereignty. The Philippines' strategic location and territorial disputes in the South China Sea have made it a key player in regional geopolitics.