In Geopolitics Today - Friday, September 24th
The Uncertain Future of International Cooperation in Space and SE Asia Divided Over AUKUS Pact
The Uncertain Future of International Cooperation in Space
Space is rapidly being embraced by states as a crucial new frontier. Governments are pouring more and more treasure into national space programs, transforming space into a new battleground for political and diplomatic disputes. The International Space Station (ISS), a long-running platform for international cooperation in space, will soon no longer be in operation. The continued exclusion of China from the project has led to divergent plans and increased distrust between major space-faring powers. With relations between the two largest players increasingly hostile on Earth, the future of international cooperation in space is uncertain.
As the top funder of the ISS, the United States possesses immense decision-making power over the station’s operations. And this power has meant that China has been unable to participate in the ISS project due to Washington’s objections over the military nature of China National Space Administration’s (CNSA) work. Since forming the CNSA in 1993, China has invested in seriously growing its space program despite being left in the cold by Washington, and has made significant strides in the decades since. It was not until 2007, when Beijing successfully conducted an anti-satellite missile test, that planners in Washington began to raise concerns about China’s capabilities in space. In 2011, the US Congress passed the Wolf Amendment, banning government cooperation with the CNSA without clearance from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Congress.
Cooperation between the US and China on the ISS project is now also improbable on the grounds that the ISS is expected to cease operations in 2028, leaving little time for any dialogue and discussion to take place over any such initiative. After being excluded from participation in the ISS project, China is developing partnerships in anticipation of the completion of its Tiangong Space Station which is currently being built. Cooperation in space between the two foremost space-faring nations, especially given the US’ staunch opposition to China’s growing space power, seems unlikely in the years ahead.
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SE Asia Divided Over AUKUS Pact
In the wake of the new tripartite partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, leaders across Southeast Asia have reacted to the news. Their reactions have been indicative of their respective country’s policy preferences abroad, and have broadly illustrated a region divided. Indonesia and Malaysia in particular expressed concern over the new deal, with Malaysia announcing that it will seek out China’s views on AUKUS.
Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said the agreement has the potential to provoke aggressive actions, and could even prove to be a “catalyst for a nuclear arms race” in the region. Malaysia’s announcement went further to say that Kuala Lumpur will seek out Beijing’s opinion on the new AUKUS deal and the regional security implications which arise from it. Indonesia also reacted with unease toward AUKUS, expressing their concerns over the implications such a deal will have on the region and issuing a warning over increased “power projection in the region.” Vietnam, meanwhile, issued a rather ambiguous statement, emphasising the importance of “peace, stability, cooperation, and development” for the region.
The AUKUS pact has put many Southeast Asian countries in an awkward position. Most have extensive and robust economic links with China as well as close security relations with the United States and its partners. Countries in the region have legitimate concerns about becoming pawns in a new superpower struggle, and the issue is set to strain relations further as many maintain a desire to uphold positive relations with both Beijing and Washington. Given this delicate international environment, regional powers caught in the balance of great power are hesitant to support one over the other publicly.
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