In Geopolitics Today: Friday, September 9th
Poland Announces $1.4 Billion in Arms Contracts, Threats of a Trade War Loom over the Northern Ireland Protocol, and other stories.
Poland Announces $1.4 Billion in Arms Contracts
Poland will purchase 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters and a number of other military purchases as part of a massive militarization program. Aside from the Apache deal, a further $1.4 billion in procurements was announced by the government. The AH-64E Apache aircraft are part of the Polish armed forces’ Kruk attack helicopter program.
Poland is moving to modernise its military forces and increase the country’s capabilities as Warsaw moves in recent years signal Poland’s rise as the premier land power within the European Union. Warsaw has dropped $1.4 billion in contract announcements on top of the Apache deal, which is likely to have a price tag of over $2 billion. The announcements come after other recent moves to boost military capabilities, with Poland investing in new HIMARS and Patriot capabilities as well as purchasing 1,000 K2 tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers, and 48 FA-50 light combat aircraft from South Korea.
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Threats of a Trade War Loom over the Northern Ireland Protocol
EU officials have made threats to unleash a trade war against the United Kingdom over the Northern Ireland protocol dispute. With London preparing to suspend the Protocol and institute changes unilaterally, Brussels has expressed opposition to such moves, stating that it would threaten a trade war between the UK and the EU.
Following Brexit, the Northern Ireland protocol came into effect by imposing a customs border between the UK and Northern Ireland, obligating London to comply with single market regulations in NI. Until now, minor corrections to the protocol have been made with the consent of the UK and Brussels, yet this could now be under threat. A trade war between the EU and UK would prove disastrous at a time of uncertainty over energy prices and sanctions on Russia.
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The US Unveils Another Military Transfer to Europe and Ukraine
US officials have announced another military aid package that will see weapons and ammunition go to Ukraine and countries on NATO’s eastern flank. The military aid package includes $2.2 billion in Foreign Military Financing and $675 million in arms, munitions and equipment from existing inventories.
In the more than six months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its allies have worked with cohesion and efficiency to impose sanctions on Moscow and ramp up military, economic and political aid to Ukraine. The $2.2 billion includes loans to be used for acquiring more weapons systems, with $1 billion made available for Ukraine, while the rest will be divided among 18 other countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
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EU Price Cap on Russian Natural Gas Faces Opposition
The European Commission is preparing to propose a mandatory target for reduced power consumption at peak hours, a revenue cap on electricity producers and fossil fuel companies, and a price cap on Russian gas as measures to save the European gas and electricity markets.
Yet the Commission’s plans are running into firm opposition by a number of EU member states. At least 10 member states, including Italy, Greece, and Poland, are reportedly opposed to the bloc applying a price cap on Russian gas over concerns that Russia may retaliate by cutting all gas supplies to Europe. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the country most directly affected by pipeline shutdowns is also not supportive of the plan.