In Geopolitics Today: Friday, September 8th
India Embraces Protectionist Policies, Argentina's Growing Economic Dependence on Brazil, and other stories.
India Embraces Protectionist Policies
The Indian government has enacted more protectionist trade policies, including export restrictions on staple foods like rice, wheat, and sugar, as it seeks to curb high inflation and unemployment. These measures aim to shore up domestic food stocks after poor crop yields, while import curbs on products like laptops intend to boost domestic manufacturing and create jobs under the 'Make in India' program.
India's export bans could exacerbate global food shortages and inflation, as India is a top exporter of rice, wheat, sugar, and other agriculture products. With global staple supplies already strained by weather crises and the war in Ukraine, reduced Indian exports will increase demand for substitute crops, resulting in higher prices. This risks undermining trust in global trade. Domestically, while export curbs may temporarily ease India's food crisis, import restrictions could drive up prices in the short-term. India's protectionism highlights the difficult trade-offs countries face when balancing domestic priorities with global stability.
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Turkey and Greece Signal Intent to Rebuild Relations
In a surprising turn of events, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Greek counterpart announced a renewed effort to improve relations between their historically tense nations. Recent years have seen moments of conflict, including naval incidents in the Eastern Mediterranean, but also sporadic cooperation. However, the 2020 near-conflict over energy drilling and subsequent political disappointments severely strained relations. Now, both Turkey and Greece appear motivated to thaw relations.
This potential rapprochement has implications beyond the two nations. It could help Turkey strengthen ties with the European Union, facilitating its EU accession track and attracting Western investors. Additionally, it aligns with Turkey's efforts to mend relations with Israel, Egypt, and the United States. For Greece, this represents an opportunity to reduce tensions and build confidence with its neighbour. While deeply rooted disputes remain, both sides seem willing to agree to disagree on some issues and focus on areas of cooperation. As the region's dynamics evolve, this emerging détente could reshape alliances and enhance stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.
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Continuity and Change in US Foreign Policy
A new analysis of US national security strategy documents finds major continuity on prioritizing great power competition amid periodic change driven by global events. Strategies consistently focus on Russia and China as leading strategic competitors. The Global War on Terror temporarily displaced this focus, but competition with Russia and China has again become central under Obama, Trump, and now Biden. There is also continuity in strategies organizing around regional priorities, with Asia rising and the Middle East declining recently.
The analysis underscores how national security strategies react to global events but also display predictable patterns focused on great power competition. Although terrorism temporarily displaced major power competition as the prime strategic concern for the US after 9/11, competition with Russia and China has re-emerged as the guiding focus that endures across administrations. This suggests a return to Cold War-style rivalry will likely frame US grand strategy for the foreseeable future. However, terrorism and other transnational issues like climate change never fully disappear from the strategies, either. Major power competition seems entrenched as the priority, but working to build global cooperation to tackle shared threats also remains an imperative.
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Argentina's Growing Economic Dependence on Brazil
Facing economic crisis, some in Argentina's government propose embracing greater economic dependence on Brazil. Argentina recorded an $292 million trade deficit with Brazil in August, the eighth straight monthly deficit, totalling $4.5 billion this year. Brazil is now Argentina's top trade partner, with machinery and manufactured imports critical to Argentina's production. But Argentina's exports to Brazil dropped 13% in August, widening the bilateral deficit.
The growing trade imbalance highlights Argentina's deepening economic woes and reliance on Brazilian imports for key industrial inputs. But while further dependence on Brazil could ease Argentina's import needs in the short-term, it risks ceding economic sovereignty in the long run. The mounting deficit also underscores Argentina's weakness in manufacturing and value-added production compared to Brazil's diversified export strength. Reducing internal dysfunction through judicious reforms, not embracing external over-dependence, likely holds the key to revitalizing Argentina's prosperity. Rather than deepen bilateral reliance, Argentina could focus on boosting its own competitiveness through pro-business reforms, investment in innovation and education, and diversifying its export markets globally to ease external pressures.
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Pakistan's Fading Geopolitical Role
Pakistan's global significance has dwindled in recent years due to various intersecting factors. Changing global geopolitics have diminished Pakistan's traditional role as a bridge between major regional powers. The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan has halted Pakistan's pivotal position as a conduit for US operations there. China's increasing focus on its eastern coast, as well as India's economic growth and expanding regional influence, have diverted attention from Pakistan. Additionally, Pakistan grapples with persistent political instability and economic crises internally, which divert the leadership's focus from effective foreign policy.
Pakistan's loss of geopolitical relevance could have significant implications for regional dynamics going forward. Its troubled relationship with rising India is becoming less prominent in broader geopolitical calculations. China may prioritize overall stability in South Asia with India over its alliance with unstable Pakistan. Pakistan's internal distractions prevent it from fully leveraging its once-vital strategic location between regions. While this marginalization on the global stage could incentivize Pakistan to pursue much-needed domestic reform and more balanced foreign relations, it could also spur riskier policies as the country struggles to regain relevance. Either way, Pakistan no longer appears to be the geopolitical pivot between great powers that it once was.
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The Complex Calculus Behind Naval Expansion
A case study on Imperial Germany's naval expansion from 1872-1916 analysed how maritime strategy versus domestic factors shaped naval construction. The study found Germany initially lacked a maritime tradition, with its navy functioning as an army extension for coastal defence. Naval construction focused on limited ship types like gunboats, without an overarching maritime strategy. As Germany matured, leaders like Admiral Tirpitz spearheaded more systematic battleship-centred naval expansion guided by sea power theories. However, domestic political and industrial interests still impacted shipbuilding.
This research highlights how rising naval powers may not follow a purely strategic approach when determining fleet composition. Non-strategic domestic factors like boosting employment, subsidizing industry, and appeasing political constituencies often shape shipbuilding. The analysis implies that as China continues its naval build-up today, its construction decisions likely involve a blend of geostrategic aims and domestic economic and political priorities. Going forward, international observers should be cautious about interpreting each new Chinese naval capability as solely fulfilling an overarching maritime strategy. Ship acquisitions may also serve indigenous goals like supporting industry and keeping citizens employed.