In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, May 17th
An Expanded NATO and Militarization in the Arctic, The Changing Landscape of Trans-Asian Transport Corridors, US Redeploys Troops to Somalia
An Expanded NATO and Militarization in the Arctic
Recent moves by the governments in Stockholm and Helsinki have sought to cement Sweden and Finland as full members of NATO. In the event that NATO membership for both Finland and Sweden becomes a reality, strategic calculations for Arctic powers may change as increased militarization comes to the Arctic. Both Finland and Sweden are already regular participants in NATO's military manoeuvres in Northern Europe, and the formalization of NATO membership is sure to further increase joint combat manoeuvres within the vicinity of Russia's naval assets on the Kola Peninsula.
The Kola Peninsula in the Russian Arctic will become a region of increasing importance focus for NATO as the Peninsula houses Russia’s Northern Fleet. The Norther Fleet carries particular strategic importance because the submarines based here form a significant part of Russia’s maritime nuclear second-strike capability. Their strategic significance to Russia's nuclear strategy has been recognized by Moscow, which protects nuclear weapons assets here by seeking to deny hostile forces any access to the region. By admitting Finland and Sweden, NATO would be expected to fortify strategic position in Finland and Sweden in the proximity Russian strategic assets on the Kola Peninsula.
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The Changing Landscape of Trans-Asian Transport Corridors
The War in Ukraine has disrupted major international infrastructure projects which sought to connect China with Europe. The many China–Central Asia–Russia–Europe transit corridors that traverse Eurasia that had been planned by governments over the last decade have now become costly and uncertain, prompting some countries to look for alternative projects. Russia and Iran have adjusted to this reality by seeking to expand cooperation in transport by jointly supporting alternate development corridors.
Moscow hopes to counter the economic sanctions and transit restrictions imposed by the US, EU and its allies by seeking out alternative trade routes. In this regard, one important prospect for Russia to raise trade revenues is to strengthen the land and rail routes of the International North-South Transport Corridor. Similar motivations underpin Iranian interests in the project, and Tehran has taken the initiative in seeking out Russian investment in the project in recent weeks. The Iranian Roads and Urban Development Minister visited Moscow in April where he and following his the Russian Transport Minister signed a comprehensive agreement on cooperation in the field of transportation. Both officials stressed the importance of establishing a railway connecting the Asian continent’s north and south.
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US Redeploys Troops to Somalia
The United States has made the decision to redeploy hundreds of special forces troops back to Somalia. US President Joe Biden signed an order authorizing the military to send several hundred special operations back into Somalia in an effort to help the Somali federal government fight off rebel groups. The decision is a move that will reinforce the various military and private security actors implicated in the pursuit of irretrievably entangled business and security interests.
While former President Donald Trump’s chose to withdraw roughly 750 troops from Somalia shortly before leaving office, his administration designated parts of Somalia as “areas of active hostilities” and expanded the conduct of airstrikes and raids. Southern Somalia has since been subjected to an escalation of drone strikes, and President Biden's executive order is a continuation of the “flexible” approach employed by the Trump administration to conduct airstrikes and drone warfare accompanied by specialized ground forces. The White House has now approved a request made by the Pentagon to have broader discretionary authority to conduct drone strikes in the country, indicating an upcoming intensification of US drone strikes in Somalia.
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