In Geopolitics Today: Monday, April 15th
Iran Conducts Telegraphed Retaliatory Strike, Russian Refineries Recovering from Ukrainian Drone Attacks, and other stories.
Iran Conducts Telegraphed Retaliatory Strike
Around 300 drones and missiles launched from Iran, Yemen, and Lebanon struck Israel late Saturday, marking the largest drone strike in history. Israel claimed it intercepted 99% of the strikes but described the attack as a “declaration of war.” The US stated it would not join any retaliatory action. The strikes targeted sensitive sites, including the Nevatim airbase, which houses F-35 jets.
Iran's military operation involved an unprecedented level of coordination, with the attack unfolding in distinct stages: drones, cruise missiles, and finally, ballistic missiles. The ballistic missiles used likely included advanced systems such as the Shahab-3, Emad, and potentially hypersonic variants like the Fattah-2 or Kheybar Shekan. By sending drones before missiles and leaking its plans, Iran appeared to demonstrate a desire to retaliate in a telegraphed manner for Israel's earlier strike on its Damascus embassy while avoiding further escalation. Several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, played a crucial role by sharing vital intelligence and real-time tracking data.
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Saudi Arabia Files UN Complaint Against the UAE Over Disputed Islands
Saudi Arabia has lodged a complaint with the United Nations against the United Arab Emirates after Abu Dhabi declared the contested Al-Yasat maritime area a “protected marine area.” In a letter to the UN Secretary-General, Riyadh rejected the UAE's 2019 decree, accusing Abu Dhabi of encroaching on its borders and stating that it does not recognize any measures taken by the UAE in the area off the Saudi coast.
The dispute over Al-Yasat, which consists of four islands — Upper Yasat, Lower Yasat, Esam, and Karsha — highlights the long-standing territorial disagreements between the two Gulf countries since the UAE's founding in 1971. Despite the 1974 Jeddah Agreement, the UAE has still not ratified the agreement. While the two states have been close allies over the past decade, collaborating in the Yemen war and jointly blockading Qatar from 2017-2020, recent divergences in foreign policy have underscored the ongoing tensions between them.
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Belgium Postpones Frigate Deployment to Red Sea
Belgium has delayed the deployment of its frigate Louise-Marie to the Red Sea for an indefinite period after the vessel encountered technical difficulties during training exercises. The Belgian Defence Ministry confirmed the postponement, but declined to provide specific details due to operational security concerns. The ship experienced a malfunction during a simulated drone attack, with a RIM-7 Sea Sparrow air-defence missile failing to launch and remaining stuck in the launch tube. The frigate's other defence systems also reportedly failed to intercept the practice drone.
The Louise-Marie, one of Belgium's two frigates, is equipped with an array of weaponry, including 16 air-defence missile launch cells, an Oto Melara 76mm cannon, a close-in weapon system, and machine guns. Belgium is the latest European nation to face technical challenges related to the international mission to protect shipping lanes in the Red Sea, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been targeting marine traffic with missiles and drones. The Louise-Marie will remain in the Mediterranean while the identified deficiencies are analysed and adjustments are made. The technical issues faced by the Louise-Marie and other European vessels highlight the challenges of maintaining effective air-defence capabilities.
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Singapore Cracks Down on Weapons Sales to Myanmar
Singapore has taken significant steps to restrict the sale of weapons through its territory to Myanmar's government forces, following pressure from the United Nations. The move comes as a severe blow to the embattled generals, who have been struggling to maintain control since seizing power in a coup more than three years ago.
The crackdown has raised costs for army chief Min Aung Hlaing and his forces at a time when they face battlefield setbacks, struggling to quell opposition in the country's heartland and losing territory to a coalition of resistance forces. The junta's imposition of a sweeping conscription law is a sign of an increased desperation to boost ranks. Singapore's intervention has significantly curtailed the generals' procurement abilities, according to Myanmar's National Unity Government (NUG). The NUG has called on other ASEAN member states to follow Singapore's lead in disrupting the junta's access to weapons, finance, and legitimacy.
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Russian Refineries Recovering from Ukrainian Drone Attacks
Despite facing a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil infrastructure since the beginning of the year, Russia has managed to quickly repair some of its key refineries. Reuters calculations show that the Russian refineries affected by the attacks have been able to restore operations of some primary oil refining units. This has reduced the idled refining capacity from nearly 14% at the end of March to approximately 10% currently.
Although Russia's total offline primary oil refining capacity due to drone attacks has decreased from around 907,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 660,000 bpd, the country is still expected to experience an increase in cumulative offline capacity. Russia's Energy Minister, Nikolai Shulginov, has stated that all damaged refineries will be restarted by the beginning of June, which, if it would be achieved, would highlight the country's resilience and ability to overcome the challenges posed by strikes. As the world's second-largest oil exporter, Russia's swift recovery of its refining capabilities is important to global oil markets.
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Nuclear Energy Faces Financing Hurdles Despite Global Renaissance
Nuclear energy is experiencing a resurgence in many Western countries, driven by the global energy crisis and the need for reliable, low-carbon power sources. However, despite the renewed interest and support from governments, the industry faces a significant obstacle in securing the necessary financing for its ambitious expansion plans.
At the recent nuclear summit convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Brussels, bankers expressed reluctance to finance nuclear projects. Lenders view the sector as high-risk, with European Investment Bank Vice President Thomas Ostros citing the “very high” project risks as a deterrent. Other bankers, such as Ines Rocha from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development and Fernando Cubillos from the Development Bank of Latin America, prioritize lending for renewables and transmission grids over nuclear projects. As the world grapples with the challenges of meeting climate goals and reducing dependence on fossil fuels, the future of nuclear energy hinges on the ability to secure the necessary financing and government support to make projects viable.