In Geopolitics Today: Monday, April 22nd
EU Pressure on Greece and Spain to Bolster Ukraine's Air Defences, Brazil Pursues Ambitious Foreign Policy Agenda, and other stories.
EU Pressure on Greece and Spain to Bolster Ukraine's Air Defences
At a recent EU summit in Brussels, leaders intensified pressure on Greece and Spain to provide additional air defence systems to Ukraine. The calls come as Kyiv urgently seeks seven more units, such as US-made Patriots or Soviet-developed S-300s, to counter Russia's escalating air and missile campaign targeting cities and critical infrastructure. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the need for these systems to be operational rather than “standing immobile somewhere in storage bases.”
The pointed appeals to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez reflect the growing consensus among EU and NATO allies that the two countries' air defence capabilities exceed their immediate security needs. In contrast, Ukraine faces a dire and pressing threat as it strives to repel Russian aggression. While Germany recently pledged an additional Patriot system, Kyiv is particularly interested in acquiring Greece's older S-300 units, given Ukrainian forces' existing familiarity with the Soviet-era technology. The upcoming meeting of EU foreign and defence ministers in Luxembourg is expected to further spotlight this issue, with Ukraine's top diplomats and military leaders set to participate remotely and advocate for expanded air defence support.
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Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, and UAE Sign Deal to Develop Transport Corridor
Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE have signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on the Iraq Development Road project, a 1,200 km highway and railway initiative that aims to connect the Gulf region to Europe via Iraq and Turkey. The deal recognizes the strategic importance of the Middle East as a vital transport hub linking the East and West.
The project's geographic scope and ambition reflect the signatories' recognition of Iraq's pivotal location at the crossroads of the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. By establishing a modern, high-speed transport corridor through Iraq, the initiative seeks to leverage the country's strategic position to facilitate the efficient movement of goods and people between the Gulf, Turkey, and ultimately, European markets. The envisioned integration of logistics hubs, industrial complexes, and potentially oil and gas pipelines along the route illustrates a comprehensive approach to enhancing regional connectivity and economic integration. The signing of the memorandum, along with 26 additional agreements covering areas such as energy, defence, trade, water, and security cooperation, also signals a deepening of ties between Turkey and Iraq.
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Global Military Spending Surges to All-Time High
Global military expenditure soared to an unprecedented $2.44 trillion in 2023, marking a steep 6.8% increase from the previous year, according to new data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This surge, the sharpest year-on-year rise since 2009, underscores the growing geopolitical tensions and security challenges facing the world.
The top 10 military spenders, led by the United States, China, and Russia, all increased their spending in 2023, contributing significantly to the overall growth. The US remained the world's largest military spender, allocating $916 billion, which accounted for over two-thirds of total NATO spending. China, the second-largest military spender, allocated an estimated $296 billion to its military in 2023, marking a 6% increase from the previous year and the 29th consecutive year-on-year rise. The Middle East witnessed the highest annual growth rate in military spending in a decade, with a 9% increase to $200 billion in 2023. Other notable developments include India's position as the fourth-largest military spender, with an expenditure of $83.6 billion, and significant percentage increases in military spending by the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan. Poland's military spending grew by a staggering 75% between 2022 and 2023, the largest annual increase by any European country.
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Russia Expands Military Foothold in Eastern Libya
Russia has been bolstering its military presence in eastern Libya, with recent shipments of thousands of tons of equipment, including artillery, armoured vehicles, and rocket launchers, arriving at the port of Tobruk from the Russian-controlled Syrian port of Tartus. The deliveries follow repeated visits by Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to General Khalifa Haftar, the strongman controlling the eastern part of the divided country.
While some equipment may be used to support Russia's growing military footprint in Libya, a portion is likely destined for countries further south in Africa, such as Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. For Russia, establishing a strong presence in eastern Libya serves multiple strategic purposes. Libya's geographic location at the crossroads of the Mediterranean, Africa, and the Middle East makes it an ideal platform for projecting power and influence across these regions. By supporting Haftar, Moscow aims to secure a foothold in the Mediterranean, which would enable it to monitor and potentially challenge NATO's activities in the area. This presence also allows Russia to expand its influence in Africa, using Libya as a gateway to the continent and a logistical hub for its military operations and diplomatic engagements.
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US Tech Giants Deepen AI and Quantum Investments in Japan
American technology heavyweights Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle are making significant strides to expand their presence and partnerships in Japan's rapidly evolving artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing ecosystem. Recent announcements highlight their commitment to establishing new data centers, collaborating on cutting-edge research projects, and supporting Japan's strategic initiatives to harness the transformative potential of these emerging technologies.
Nvidia's collaboration with Fujitsu on the ABCI-Q supercomputer at Japan's National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) are a part of the growing synergies between US and Japanese tech companies. Microsoft's $2.9 billion investment over the next two years encompasses expanding cloud and AI infrastructure, establishing a research lab in Tokyo, providing AI training to millions of Japanese workers and students, and bolstering cybersecurity cooperation with the government. These initiatives align with Japan's Generative AI Accelerator Challenge (GENIAC) program, which seeks to empower companies with the computing resources needed to develop generative AI foundation models. Meanwhile, Oracle's $8 billion commitment over the next decade will see the construction of new data centres to meet the growing demand for cloud computing and AI services.
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Brazil Pursues Ambitious Foreign Policy Agenda
Brazil is positioning itself for a more prominent role on the global stage as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva embarks on an ambitious foreign policy push. Since retaking office in 2023, Lula has sought to restore Brazil's international standing and advance its long-held aspirations for great power status. He has undertaken a flurry of diplomatic outreach, with nearly 30 international visits in his first year, aimed at promoting a more multilateral and representative world order.
Brazil's upcoming leadership roles in major international forums, including the G20 and BRICS in 2024-2025 and hosting the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in late 2025, offer a unique platform for Lula to shape the global agenda. The current geopolitical landscape, marked by increasing fragmentation and the growing assertiveness of Global South nations, plays to Brazil's strengths as a consensus-builder and adept soft-power balancer. The country's centrality to key global challenges, from climate change mitigation through protecting the Amazon to energy transition and food security, further bolsters its diplomatic heft. To maximize its impact, Brazil will need to focus strategically on areas where it can leverage its unique assets, such as championing sustainable development, spearheading regional stability efforts, and advocating for a more equitable global financial architecture.