In Geopolitics Today: Monday, April 1st
Israel Strikes Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Puntland Withdraws from Somalia's Federal System, and other stories.
Israel Strikes Iranian Consulate in Damascus
An Israeli air strike has flattened the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing several people, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The attack, which completely destroyed the consulate's annex building in the upscale Mezzeh district, has escalated tensions between Israel and Iran, with the latter vowing a “harsh” response.
Iranian Ambassador Hossein Akbari, who was not injured in the strike, confirmed that at least five people had been killed. Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad denounced the attack as a “heinous terrorist attack,” while Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian described it as a “violation of all international obligations and conventions,” holding Israel responsible for the consequences. The Israeli military declined to comment on the reports, but the strike comes amid increased Israeli air strikes in Syria targeting militia groups and forces supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government. The strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus raises questions about the legality of using force against diplomatic missions under international law. While states have occasionally invoked self-defense in such situations, the international community has rarely accepted this justification, and alternative means of addressing these incidents are more commonly employed.
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UAE's Acquires Stake in Zambia's Mopani Copper Mine
International Resources Holding (IRH), a little-known company from the United Arab Emirates, has acquired a 51% stake in Zambia's Mopani copper mine for $1.1bn. The deal, finalised at the end of March 2023, saw IRH outbid China's Zijin Mining and South Africa's Sibanye-Stillwater. IRH is part of International Holding Company, the $240bn business empire of influential Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan.
The acquisition marks a significant shift in the global mining landscape, as Gulf states increasingly redirect petrodollars to secure critical minerals essential for the clean energy transition. For Zambia, IRH's investment offers an alternative to the historically exploitative arrangements with western or Chinese investors. However, concerns have been raised about the opacity surrounding IRH and the potential risks of sovereign wealth involvement in the mining sector. The deal's success will hinge on IRH's ability to deliver promised benefits to local communities and support Zambia's broader economic development, while also aligning with the UAE's own strategic objectives of economic diversification and resource security.
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Bulgaria and Romania Partially Join Schengen Area
On March 31, Bulgaria and Romania partially joined the Schengen open-travel zone for air and sea travel. The move comes 13 years after their initial application and follows an agreement reached in December 2023, in which Austria lifted its long-standing opposition to the two countries' bids. However, border checks will continue to apply to those travelling by land between Bulgaria, Romania, and other Schengen area members.
The removal of internal border controls at Bulgarian and Romanian airports and seaports is expected to ease travel within the European Union, benefiting both countries' tourism sectors and enhancing the value of their visa and residence permits for non-EU citizens. This is likely to improve the business environment and increase the overall attractiveness of Bulgaria and Romania, contributing to economic growth. Despite this progress, the two countries will continue to miss out on the most significant economic benefits of full Schengen membership until land border checks are also removed. The free flow of goods and people across land borders would reduce transit times and transportation costs for companies, encourage cross-border economic activities, and allow for more efficient use of border infrastructure.
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Baltimore Bridge Collapse Disrupts US Coal Exports and Military Sealift
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on March 26, following a collision with the container ship MV Dali, has temporarily halted all shipping traffic from the Port of Baltimore in the United States. While the impact on the transportation of commonly used petroleum products is expected to be minimal, the incident has significant implications for the US coal industry and military sealift capabilities.
As the nation's second-largest coal exporting hub, accounting for 28% of total US coal exports in 2023, the Port of Baltimore plays a crucial role in facilitating coal shipments to domestic and international markets. The port's strategic location and infrastructure make it a gateway for both steam and metallurgical coal exports. The temporary closure is likely to influence US coal export volumes for 2024, which were previously projected to grow, potentially leading to economic repercussions. In addition to the disruption in coal exports, the blocked entrance to the Port of Baltimore has stranded four cargo ships that are on call to support US military operations. Among the vessels stuck in the port are the SS Antares and SS Denebola, both members of the Algol class.
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Houthis Threaten Attacks on Saudi Arabia
Yemen's Houthi rebels have threatened to strike Saudi Arabia if it continues allowing US warplanes to use its territory for military operations against the group. The Houthis are currently building up their forces to advance on the oil and gas-rich Marib region. They have also intensified attacks on oil tankers passing through Red Sea transit routes, including the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Iran's tacit support for the Houthis' stance, despite the relationship resumption deal with Saudi Arabia brokered by China last year, raises questions about the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. Tehran's backing of the Houthis is likely an attempt to escalate tensions in the Middle East, potentially drawing the US military back into the region on a larger scale. This aligns with Iran's long-standing goal of spearheading a wider Islamic revolution to challenge the regional security order dominated by Israel and the United States. However, Iran's ability to pursue this objective depends on the financial, military, and political support of Russia and China.
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Puntland Withdraws from Somalia's Federal System
On March 31, Somalia's semi-autonomous state of Puntland announced its withdrawal from the country's federal system, stating it will govern independently until constitutional amendments recently passed by the central government in Mogadishu are approved in a nationwide referendum. The federal parliament's approval of changes to Somalia's provisional constitution has sparked this rift between Puntland and the federal government.
The dispute poses significant challenges for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who is already grappling with an insurgency, a resurgence in piracy, and attempting to assert federal authority over the breakaway region of Somaliland. Organizing a nationwide referendum to resolve the dispute would face major security and logistical hurdles, likely leading to a protracted stand-off. The United Arab Emirates, a key ally to Puntland’s local government, may seek to exploit this discord to reinforce its influence in Puntland, given Abu Dhabi's strained relations with Mogadishu following the federal government's recent rapprochement with Turkey. Puntland's decision has primarily created a dilemma for Mogadishu & Ankara.