In Geopolitics Today: Monday, April 17th
European Countries Impose Bans on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports, Conflict in Sudan Delays Normalization with Israel, and other stories.
European Countries Impose Bans on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports
Several European countries are taking steps to protect their own farmers from cheap Ukrainian agricultural imports. Hungary has threatened to extend a grain ban if the European Union fails to take action to protect its farmers. Meanwhile, Slovakia has temporarily banned some farm imports from Ukraine, while Poland and Hungary have also banned the import of Ukrainian grains.
The European Commission has rejected the bans, saying that unilateral actions by member states are not acceptable under the EU’s trade policy. The tension between European countries and Ukraine stems from a surge in cheap Ukrainian agricultural goods within the bloc, which has resulted in a glut and pushed prices down, jeopardizing the livelihoods of farmers in these countries. Ukrainian officials have expressed regret over the bans, saying that while Polish farmers may be suffering, Ukrainians have it worse. Talks between Ukrainian authorities and those in Poland, Romania, and Slovakia are expected in the coming days to address the issue.
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Turkey Focusing on Domestically-built Surface-to-air Missile Systems
Turkey has announced that it will not be accepting the second battery of the S-400 air defence system from Russia. In recent years, Turkey has developed a full range of air defence systems domestically, with some of its models purportedly matching the capabilities of the Russian S-400. Hisar systems now provide Turkey with a modern air defence system for domestic use and export.
Turkey's new air defence system consists of Hisar A, Hisar O, Hisar U, and Siper, which are all expected to be in service by 2024. Turkey is offering all five of its domestically-produced surface-to-air systems (Hisar, Siper, Korkut, Sugur, and Porsav) to export customers. Turkish air defence systems are the latest addition to a large selection of domestically-produced weapons, ranging from small arms to armoured vehicles, helicopter gunships, artillery, and warships.
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Conflict in Sudan Delays Normalization with Israel
The current conflict in Sudan between the military and the paramilitary group RSF is causing delays in the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel. The two countries have been working towards normalization since 2020, with Sudan leaders stating that the process will only be concluded once a civilian transition government is established. Sudan had considered Israel an enemy country until two years ago, but the thaw with Israel began after Sudan severed ties with Iran in 2016.
Sudan's geopolitical status, its relations with Israel's allies Egypt and Ethiopia, and its past relations with Iran make it a strategic priority for the country. The top rapprochement interest of both countries is clearly security, with future relations possibly including cooperation on smart agriculture, communications, and trade. However, according to Israeli diplomatic sources, the final steps towards normalization have been put on hold until the current conflict dies down. The Israeli Foreign Ministry has issued a statement calling for stability and security in Sudan, emphasizing its interest in developments in the country.
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US and China Compete for Control of Pacific Island Nations
The United States is currently engaged in a quiet economic battle for control of three Pacific Island nations, which are facing increasing pressure to align with either China or the US in their growing competition in the Pacific Ocean. China is attempting to establish a presence in the region, while the United States is seeking to strengthen its military and economic controls over these three countries.
The United States has played a dominant role in the Pacific Islands since the end of World War II, maintaining military controls over the islands in exchange for economic assistance. The agreements between the US and the Pacific Island nations, which include economic provisions, are currently being renegotiated, with officials in Washington aware of the importance of these countries to US strategy in the Pacific. The possibility of losing ground in the region to China has especially concerned US officials.
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Global Tensions Rise Ahead of ITU Summit
As the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rule-making summit approaches this year, there is mounting global pressure to allocate radio frequency spectrum, currently reserved for radar and satellite systems, to wireless telecommunications, specifically 5G. A recent preparatory meeting has brought to light a number of politically-charged issues that have been creating tension between different countries. One of the main points of contention is the use of certain frequencies for the command and control of drones using broadband and narrowband satellites.
A coalition led by Iran and Russia is fighting hard to prohibit the use of these frequencies, citing concerns about the use of drones in their airspace. This has created a difficult situation for the ITU, which must balance the needs of different countries while ensuring the effective use of available resources. Another major issue is the question of access to satellite spectrum, particularly for developing countries. With the increasing number of commercial constellations, many countries are worried that there won't be enough space left for them. Additionally, there is growing concern about space sustainability, and the role that the ITU should play in ensuring that space is used in a responsible and sustainable way.