In Geopolitics Today - Monday, August 23rd
Egypt Continues Diplomatic Tour of the Region and Russia’s Own Quagmire in the Middle East
Egypt Continues Diplomatic Tour of the Region
Egypt has continued its recent diplomatic drive to win more support from regional countries. The Prime Minister of Somalia, Mohamed Roble, arrived in Cairo last week at the personal invitation of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the President of Egypt. Egypt is actively courting other countries in its region, now seeking partnerships to secure its interests in the Horn of Africa, an area Cairo has neglected.
This neglect, some analysts say, has been detrimental to Egypt's interests in the region, and has directly led to weakening Cairo’s hand in issues such as the rights to Nile River water, which threatens a significant part of Egypt’s agriculture sector. After many years looking inward, Egypt now taking a more active role in its near-abroad. Sisi has been working to reverse this policy, having paid a huge number of visits to African capitals. If left unresolved, the dispute over water rights poses an existential crisis to the government in Cairo and it must apply pressure to Addis Ababa for a deal.
The Horn of Africa is a geographic space with special importance to Egypt, especially given the strategic significance of security in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The Suez Canal is viewed by Sisi's administration as the backbone of the Egyptian economy. But Egypt will face competition from rivals Qatar and Turkey, who already enjoy good relations underwritten by agreements in security and trade. Nevertheless, Egypt’s promises of increased scholarships for Somali students at Egyptian universities will work toward a future goal, and another potential partner may have its value for Cairo going forward.
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Russia’s Own Quagmire in the Middle East
Russia’s military involvement in Syria has successfully saved the Syrian government and has largely defeated opposing rebel groups. In the short term, Russia’s regional and international standing has shifted, entrenching the views of already adversarial states and providing a demonstration of Russian capabilities to interested parties. But long-term, Moscow may be unable to restore Syrian sovereignty and maintain stability in the country to effectively conduct a reconstruction. The current state of affairs in Syria has Moscow sinking in a mire of infighting within Syria, domestic and foreign in origin.
The decisive victory over the rebels on the Syrian battlefield could not have been possible without considerable involvement from Russia and Iran. Both came to the aid of Assad, Moscow provided economic and military aid, Iran brought its regional militias, both formed a formidable resistance to foreign-supplied rebel groups. However, beyond the military victory in Syria, both Moscow and Tehran have since expressed differences of opinion, competition, and even hostility regarding the future of Syria. Nonetheless, Russia has demonstrated its power in the Middle East. In Egypt, Moscow stood behind el-Sisi in his domestic struggles, boosted ties with the Gulf states, and helped General Khalifa Haftar establish rule in Libya.
But the end of the Syrian civil war has not brought peace and stability, and Russia is in no position to start the economic reconstruction on its own. Moreover, Syria is gradually becoming a source of concern and a headache for Russia, as they are required to invest ever-growing resources to maintain an influential role in the peace. Russia’s involvement might at first glance look like a knockout against rivals, may yet become a significant source of strategic discomfort. If the fruits of hard power are to be realised, Moscow will have to invest in a region infamous for instability.
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