In Geopolitics Today - Monday, August 9th
Turkey Set to be the First to Field a Drone Carrier and Will a US Withdrawal Leave a Vacuum in the Middle East?
Turkey Set to be the First to Field a Drone Carrier
As Turkey works toward the goal of increasing its regional power, the rapid success of its arms industry is the best example of how Ankara is rising to the challenges of great power ambition. Of the many recent successes in this sprawling industry, perhaps the most noteworthy has been Turkey’s production of capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). By resting on its extensive expertise in the production of combat-tested UAVs, Ankara is now looking to incorporate these advanced drone technologies into its navy to build a drone-carrying assault ship.
With Turkey’s exit from the F-35 joint strike fighter program, the country has been looking at other ways of bolstering its power projection capabilities in its near-abroad. The construction of a small aircraft carrier — the TCG Anadolu — was initially commissioned to fill this role while carrying the F-35, but with Turkey no longer part of the F-35 program, Ankara has had to improvise. Ankara’s solution to this change of circumstances is touted to be the first drone aircraft carrier fielded by any standing military, with the TCG Anadolu said to be adapted to be capable of carrying Turkey’s drone fleet aboard its deck.
Turkish defence planners are calling for the TCG Anadolu to be capable of holding 30 to 50 drones which are to be used for a variety of missions from surveillance to armed attacks. Turkish defence company Baykar has also suggested that there are plans to develop the TB-3, a combat drone tailored for use on the TCG Anadolu. But the ambitious plan has a few hurdles to overcome, namely the fact that the TCG Anadolu is an amphibious assault ship with a small deck and a ski jump, which may require Turkish drones to be able to fold their wings to reach the higher capacities mentioned in the plans.
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Will a US Withdrawal Leave a Vacuum in the Middle East?
There’s an ongoing debate in the United States over whether, how, and in what shape will US military forces be positioned in the Middle East going forward. With the US-China competition on the minds of many lawmakers in Washington, the debate has touched on how might the US military make better use of its resources.
Two senior analysts, Steven Simon and Richard Sokolsky, provide insights as to why a US presence in the Middle East is no longer necessary. First, they note that the US no longer has vital interests in the Persian Gulf due to country’s growing energy production. Second, the main threats emanating from the Middle East stem from state weakness and dysfunctional governance, something military force is ill-suited to address. Third, core US interests in the region are can be safeguarded at a lower cost and with fewer risks than with a heavy-handed military footprint.
Analysts believe that the removal of US military assets from the Middle East does not necessarily mean that Russia or China will swoop in and take advantage of a reduced US presence. They note that both China and Russia have greatly benefited from the willingness of the US to take charge and shoulder the security burden of the Middle East, and neither are fully capable of taking on such a burden. The report concludes that a withdrawal of military assets from the Middle East must be accompanied by an astute diplomatic involvement aimed at retaining influence and advancing US interests through a stable environment.
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