In Geopolitics Today - Monday, August 16th
The Fall of Kabul and What Posture Might Afghanistan Take Under Taliban Rule
The Fall of Kabul
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The Taliban has taken control of Kabul and has negotiated a peaceful transfer of power while they form the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Some members of the Afghan government have remained while others have fled, those who remain are said to be in talks with the Taliban to facilitate the transition to a new government. At the same time, the Taliban are largely abstaining from violence in an attempt to legitimise their rule.
Taliban officials have taken up security positions inside Kabul, have taken over the presidential palace and are said to have offered amnesty for anyone who worked with the Afghan government. The footage emerging from the airstrip in Kabul International Airport has been disturbing and gut-wrenching, with scores of people pictured frantically attempting to board aircraft, clinging to the landing gear and the exterior of a moving US aircraft as it takes off, and even what appears to be people falling out of the sky following take-off.
It is difficult to speak for the motivations of each Afghan, but for many who actively worked with NATO forces throughout the almost twenty-year war the prospect of living under Taliban rule is understandably untenable. Most will have no means to escape without assistance from NATO member states. The damaging effects of the horrific way this withdrawal is playing out for the US as it withdraws its personnel only further increases the fallout from this defeat in Afghanistan.
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What Posture Might Afghanistan Take Under Taliban Rule
As the Taliban looks to formalise control over Afghanistan and pursue legitimacy both domestically and internationally, there is an impetus to better understand what kind of posture Afghanistan might pursue toward other states in the region and beyond. It is possible that some NATO members will not recognise Taliban rule, and could choose to continue to support Ghani in exile. Stability at home will be key for the Taliban.
With the collapse of the Afghan police and security forces, a lack of centralised control could lead to scenarios where weapons stay in the hands of soldiers as they return to their villages, which could quickly lead to a lingering civil war in Afghanistan. Further (and perhaps more covert) involvement by foreign powers in Afghanistan could also keep the Taliban on their toes. Guerrilla war and governance may require different skillsets.
Internationally, countries will have to decide whether or not to recognise the new Taliban government. Pakistan may come have little choice but the deal with the Taliban, especially given the flow of weapons and fighters across a border which is difficult to enforce between the two countries. Recognition from either China or Russia would be a major victory for a group like the Taliban, as both are permanent members of the UN Security Council. Beijing has already engaged with the Taliban in a bid to realise its Belt and Road Initiative. Full diplomatic recognition from either is unlikely however, at least not until the Taliban has achieved a significant degree of security and stability within the territory of Afghanistan.
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