In Geopolitics Today: Monday, August 28th
Political Fallout After Libya-Israel Meeting, Iran-Iraq Agreement on Kurdish Opposition Groups, and other stories.
Political Fallout After Libya-Israel Meeting
Libya's Prime Minister has suspended Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush and initiated an investigation following revelations of a meeting between Mangoush and Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. Despite Libya not recognizing Israel and the countries having no formal relations, the meeting raised concerns over potential cooperation. Libya's Foreign Ministry claimed the encounter was unprepared and casual, while Israel stated the ministers discussed possible collaboration and aid in areas such as humanitarian issues, agriculture, and water management. The incident led to protests in Libya and the eventual dismissal of Mangoush.
The unexpected meeting between the foreign ministers of Libya and Israel has sparked a political crisis, highlighting the complexities of Libya's internal dynamics and its stance on international relations. The suspension of Mangoush and public outrage underscore the challenges faced by Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) as it navigates its political legitimacy, internal divisions, and international engagements. The incident reveals the sensitivity surrounding foreign policy decisions in a country with a history of conflict and differing factions. Additionally, the involvement of Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani in facilitating the meeting showcases the broader implications of regional actors in shaping diplomatic interactions.
Read more about this story here.
US Attempts at Iran Deal
Washington appears to have embarked on negotiations for a temporary deal with Iran, focusing on securing the release of American prisoners held by Iran in exchange for the release of frozen Iranian funds held as part of economic sanctions. This deal aims to pave the way for talks on Iran's nuclear program, encompassing a halt in enriched uranium accumulation and Iran's commitment to refrain from producing weapons-grade fissile material, in exchange for the removal of US economic sanctions.
The Biden administration's pursuit of a temporary agreement with Iran marks a potential turning point after a period of strained negotiations and escalating tensions. The US aims to prevent a destabilizing regional war by halting Iran's progress towards nuclear weapon development. The success of a step-by-step deal and the impending prisoner swap could mitigate tensions temporarily, but this approach could face criticism from those sceptical of “hostage diplomacy.” A diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran also raises concerns for Saudi Arabia and Israel. Closer Saudi-Israeli relations reinforced through US partnerships could provide a counterbalance to perceived Iranian ambitions in the region.
Read more about this story here.
China's Space Collaboration with Gulf Nations
Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are embarking on ambitious space exploration initiatives to diversify their economies and harness technological advancements. Saudi Arabia's transformation of the Space Commission into the Saudi Space Agency (SSA) and the UAE's successful Mars probe mission highlight their commitment to space exploration.
China is eyeing collaboration with Gulf countries for space projects, focusing on areas such as remote sensing, aerospace infrastructure, and astronaut training. This push for space technology investments aims to bolster defence, technology, tourism, and communication sectors in the region. Capitalizing on the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Gulf nations are leveraging blockchain, AI, and other technologies to reduce satellite launch costs and enhance satellite capabilities, aligning with their long-term economic diversification strategies. As Gulf countries invest in space, they seek to develop technical expertise, aerospace engineering capabilities, and satellite manufacturing. These efforts not only drive diversification but also bolster defence sectors and advanced research.
Read more about this story here.
Iran-Iraq Agreement on Kurdish Opposition Groups
Iran and Iraq have reached an agreement to disarm and relocate Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq by September 19. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanani, emphasized that the deadline would not be extended. This development follows Iran's warnings about the presence of these groups and their alleged involvement in activities against Iranian interests.
The agreement carries significant implications for regional dynamics. The deal sheds light on the complexities of Iraq's internal politics, as it involves coordinating with various Kurdish opposition groups aligned with different political parties. Moreover, it highlights Iran's concerns about the potential security threats posed by these groups and its determination to address them. The development also underscores the intricate balance Iraq must maintain between its own domestic interests and its relationships with neighbouring countries.
Read more about this story here.
Liberia to Concede Territory to a UAE Firm
Liberia is currently in negotiations for a carbon offset deal that could allocate 10% of its territory to a private Emirati company. Under the potential agreement, the company would gain control over one million hectares of forested land and be granted the right to “harvest” carbon credits by restoring and protecting the area. These credits would be sold to major polluters for emissions offset purposes. The deal, if finalized, would raise concerns about the UAE's influence over Liberia and potentially impact the country's sovereignty and relationships with other nations.
The proposed agreement highlights the broader geopolitical implications of climate-related deals between nations. It underscores the potential for powerful nations or corporations to secure access to land and resources in countries under the pretext of environmental initiatives. This situation represents a case of neocolonialism, economic exploitation, and the imbalance of power in international negotiations. Additionally, such agreements could strain diplomatic relations between countries, particularly if local communities' rights and national sovereignty are perceived as being compromised. As climate-related deals become more prominent on the international stage, careful consideration of their geopolitical consequences will be crucial to ensure that they are equitable and beneficial for all parties involved.
Read more about this story here.
The Role of Political Warfare in China's Strategy
China's approach encompasses all dimensions of power and employs efforts short of armed conflict to expand coercion, violate sovereignty, and blur lines between civil and military goals. This echoes the concept of political warfare, where a nation employs various means short of war to achieve its national objectives. In this context, China's strategy is examined, focusing on its “Three Warfares” concept — public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare. These concepts find their roots in China's strategic legacy, blurring the lines between peace and war, and have become central to its approach to achieve influence and control.
China's political warfare strategy, exemplified by the Three Warfares concept, integrates a range of operations to shape perceptions, undermine adversaries, and advance its interests. This strategy reflects China's comprehensive approach to conflict, influenced by its strategic legacy and the centrality of the Chinese Communist Party. The South China Sea dispute serves as a case study illustrating the application of the Three Warfares, where China employs psychological, legal, and media warfare to reinforce its claims and prevent escalation. China's political warfare approach is fundamentally woven into its broader strategic thinking, emphasizing that influence can be achieved without resorting to kinetic force.