In Geopolitics Today - Monday, December 13th
Nicaragua Flips From Taiwan to China and South Korea Enters Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Australia
Nicaragua Flips From Taiwan to China
Daniel Ortega’s Sandinista government first switched relations from Taiwan to China in December 1985. Then in 1990, the decision was reversed shortly after Violeta Chamorro came to power. In 2007, Ortega returned to power in Nicaragua yet chose to maintain the country’s recognition of Taiwan over China. But things are now changing as Nicaragua has chosen to change its diplomatic stance, now recognizing the People’s Republic of China in Beijing following an announcement on December 9. The move will displease policymakers in Washington to whom it will symbolise an acceleration of a trend of China’s increasing influence in parts of the Western Hemisphere.
What follows is unclear, but it is reasonable to expect that Ortega’s government may bolster military cooperation with China in some capacity. Historically, regional governments which oppose US interests have proceeded to purchase arms from China, as has been the case in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Argentina. Based on more recent cases in the region where countries have chosen to recognise Beijing over Taipei, officials from Ortega’s government are likely to sign a series of Memoranda of Understanding. These will probably cover economic, trade and infrastructure investments, and could potentially include the transfer of arms. But any such deals would draw the attention of the United States, which could kick Nicaragua out of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement, and employ other harsh sanctions.
Interests further conflict between Managua and Washington because Nicaragua is also one of Russia’s closest partners. Closer alignment with Beijing will attract investments allowing the country to continue to expand defence ties with Moscow. A Nicaragua which resists US attempts to isolate the country is an unfavourable state of affairs for Washington, and part of this is a fear that it would embolden other anti-US voices in the Western Hemisphere. If Honduras also chooses to recognize China over Taiwan, it will Guatemala and Belize as the only governments in Central America that do not recognize Beijing. And the Western Hemisphere could change further still within months, as elections in Costa Rica (February 2022), Colombia (May 2022) and Brazil (October 2022) could further complicate the situation.
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South Korea Enters Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Australia
Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison and South Korean President Moon Jae-in have signed a $717m defence deal which forms a part of deepening strategic ties between the two countries. The contract was signed during a four-day visit by Moon to Canberra, and will see South Korean defence company Hanwha provide the Australian army with artillery weapons, supply vehicles and radars. It is the largest defence contract ever signed between Australia and an Asian nation, and comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacafic between Canberra and Beijing.
This year marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries, and in that time South Korea and Australia have become close trade partners, especially since the two signed a free trade agreement that has been in force since 2014. During their discussions, Moon and Morrison agreed to upgrade formal ties between their nations to a “comprehensive strategic partnership.” Moon said South Korea shared similar values and geopolitical outlook with Australia, and that his visit to Canberra was important to the “national interest” of Korea. At the same time, Moon also stressed that South Korea’s relationship with China was important, and that he desires a “harmonised relationship” between the United States and China in the region. The leaders also expressed a desire to deepen cooperation on developing clean energy technologies and critical minerals.
While South Korea has previously maintained a foreign policy based solely on North Korea, in recent years Seoul has been pursuing a more multi-faceted approach to foreign relations. South Korea is one of the ‘big tech’ leaders in both the commercial and defence worlds, and has built up its navy’s surface and sub-surface capabilities to be better able to conduct offensive regional engagements. Australia makes a natural customer for South Korean arms too, as the armed forces of both countries are interoperable with US military units, so the transfer of military technology is likely to be welcomed in Washington. Engaging with regional players while building up force structure for its military, South Korea is showing a more active side to foreign policy in the region as it looks to play a part in deterring conflict in the wider region.
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