In Geopolitics Today: Monday, December 2nd
Indonesia and Canada Sign Trade Deal, Chad Expels French Military, and other stories.
Indonesia and Canada Sign Trade Deal
Indonesia and Canada signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) on December 2, 2024, marking a significant expansion of trade ties between the G20 members. The agreement, set to take effect in 2026, will eliminate 90.5% of tariffs on Indonesian goods entering Canada, affecting trade worth $1.4 billion. Two-way trade between the nations reached $3.4 billion in 2023 according to Indonesia, though Canada estimates the figure at $5.1 billion. The deal follows two and a half years of negotiations.
The CEPA extends beyond goods to cover services like telecommunications, construction, and tourism, while facilitating investment in manufacturing, agriculture, mining, and energy infrastructure. The agreement coincides with a Canadian trade mission bringing 180 companies to Indonesia to explore opportunities in priority sectors. Currently, Indonesia's main exports to Canada include telephones, rubber, textiles, and palm oil, while Canada primarily exports agricultural products and fertilizers. The deal also includes provisions for e-commerce, intellectual property rights, and environmental standards.
Read more about this story here.
Houthis Attack a Total of 292 Ships in Red Sea Campaign
The Houthis launched 292 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea region between November 2023 and August 2024, achieving only 48 successful strikes. The campaign, triggered by the Israel-Hamas war, evolved through five phases of escalation. Initially targeting Israeli-linked vessels, the Houthis expanded to ships bound for Israel, then US and UK vessels, and finally any company with Israeli port connections.
The US and allies responded with three military operations: Operation Prosperity Guardian for defensive patrols, EU's Operation Aspides for escort missions, and Operation Poseidon Archer for direct strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Most attacks occurred in the southern Red Sea (159), followed by the Gulf of Aden (70) and Bab el-Mandeb Strait (45). While the success rate remained low — peaking at 29% in February 2024 — the campaign significantly disrupted global maritime trade, forcing major shipping companies to reroute around Africa.
Read more about this story here.
Georgia Halts EU Talks Until 2028
Georgia's Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has announced that the country would pause EU accession negotiations until 2028 and reject EU budget support during this period. The move follows months of tension over EU conditions that Georgian Dream (GD), the ruling party, views as infringements on sovereignty. These include requirements to share power with opposition parties, allow EU oversight of judicial appointments, and grant foreign-funded NGOs greater policy influence.
The announcement sparked immediate unrest. Opposition protesters faced police crackdowns in Tbilisi and other cities, while President Salome Zourabichvili declared she would remain in office beyond her term to organize opposition forces. Several ambassadors resigned, and government agency staff issued protest letters. The European Parliament called for new EU-monitored elections and sanctions on Georgian officials, while the US suspended its Strategic Partnership with Georgia. The crisis highlights growing tensions between EU enlargement and national sovereignty in Eastern Europe, particularly as Georgia balances Western integration with security concerns.
Read more about this story here.
European Gas Storage Drops at Fastest Rate Since 2016
Europe's gas storage levels have dropped at the fastest pace in eight years between October 1 and November 26, 2024, with inventories falling 83 terawatt-hours (TWh). While stocks remain 6% above seasonal averages, the surplus has narrowed significantly from 13% at winter's start. Storage facilities are now 87% full, down from 97% in 2023 and 94% in 2022. The sharp decline stems from colder temperatures across Northwest Europe, with London experiencing its coldest start to winter in five years.
The accelerated depletion has pushed gas prices higher, with Dutch TTF futures averaging €44 per megawatt-hour in November, up from €26 in February. Markets are particularly concerned about summer 2025 refill costs, with futures trading €4 above winter 2025/26 prices — an unusual pattern indicating expected competition with Asian buyers for LNG cargoes. Current inventory trajectories suggest end-of-winter stocks could fall 30% below last year's record levels, presenting potential risks if 2024/25 remains cold and is followed by another harsh winter in 2025/26.
Read more about this story here.
US Blocks China's Access to Advanced AI Chips and Manufacturing Tools
The United States imposed its strictest semiconductor export controls on China in March 2024, blocking access to critical AI chip components and manufacturing equipment. The rules target 140 Chinese companies including SMIC and Huawei, requiring virtually unobtainable licences for receiving US technology.
The measures contain notable gaps. While blocking high-bandwidth memory (HBM) exports crucial for AI development, they exempt CXMT, China's primary HBM producer. Several Huawei chip facilities also remain unrestricted. US manufacturers like Applied Materials and Lam Research have already expanded production in Singapore and Malaysia to maintain Chinese market access. These selective restrictions reflect compromises between US agencies and pressure to maintain allied cooperation on tech controls. China meanwhile continues developing domestic semiconductor capabilities to reduce reliance on Western technology.
Read more about this story here.
Chad Expels French Military
Chad has terminated its defence agreement with France, requiring the withdrawal of 1,000 French troops and aircraft from their last remaining base in the Sahel. The move follows French military departures from Mali (2022), Burkina Faso (2023), and Niger (2023). President Mahamat Idriss Deby's government cited the need to “redefine strategic partnerships” after 66 years of independence, while maintaining that France remains “an essential partner.”
Chad's decision reflects shifting power dynamics in Central Africa. The country borders Sudan, Libya, and the Central African Republic, where Russian forces maintain significant presence. France has used military bases across the Sahel to maintain political influence and secure economic interests. Chad's government appears to be diversifying its international partnerships. Senegal's recent questioning of French military presence (350 troops) suggests this trend may spread to West Africa.