In Geopolitics Today: Monday, December 5th
Key Milestone in China-Russia East-Route Natural Gas Pipeline, Azerbaijan Temporarily Occupies the Lachin Corridor as Peace Talks Stall, and other stories.
Sudan's Military and Civilian Opposition to Sign Framework Agreement
Sudanese political parties and its military leadership have signed a framework deal that promises to pave the way for a two-year civilian-led transition towards elections. While the deal could be a turning point for Sudan, there remains resistance to negotiations.
Under the reported draft agreement, the military has agreed to being represented on a security and defence council that would form a part of the civilian government. Issues relating to reforms in the judicial system and the implementation of military reforms remain issues are to be addressed in a future meeting. The outlined agreement also set no date for a final agreement or the appointment of the prime minister.
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Key Milestone in China-Russia East-Route Natural Gas Pipeline
A key segment of the the China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline has been completed, promising to deliver large amounts of natural gas from Russia to China starting from 2024. Once completed, Russian gas will cross the Yangtze River to reach Shanghai.
The completion of the China-Russia east-route gas pipeline promises China a large increase in natural gas supply amid rising global prices, while for Russia it will raise revenues from selling natural gas via long-term deals for its abundant natural gas.
The pipeline is expected to provide China with 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually under a 30-year contract worth $400 billion under a deal signed in May 2014.
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Azerbaijan Temporarily Occupies the Lachin Corridor as Peace Talks Stall
The only road into Nagorno-Karabakh ground to a halt on the weekend after Azerbaijani officials blocked the Lachin Corridor. Baku is applying pressure to Armenia in order to speed up Yerevan’s recognition of Azerbaijan’s new sovereignty over the region.
Despite signals that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was preparing to sign an agreement, the negotiations have stalled somewhat and both sides have since played down the chances of a breakthrough. The Azeri move against Lachin may be part of an effort to intimidate Armenian officials who fear, not without reason, that creating an Azerbaijani land corridor to Nakhchivan would cut the Armenian-Iranian border.
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South Sudan to Send Troops to the DRC
South Sudan’s military has announced the deployment of more than 700 personnel to eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where they will join a new regional force there.
The spokesman for South Sudan’s military, Major General Lul Ruai Koang, has said his government is working to provide the troops with needed equipment for the combat mission. The South Sudanese military did not specify when the deployment will take place, only stating that the forces are still at the “preparatory level.” Earlier this year, leaders of the East African Community agreed to create and deploy a regional force to eastern DRC, and South Sudan’s force is expected to form a part of this international effort.
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Global Arms Sales Rise for 7th Consecutive Year
A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) illustrates a continued rise in the global sales of arms and military services by the world’s 100 biggest defence companies. Despite supply chain issues heling up shipments of critical components, the global sales of arms and military services in 2021 rose 1.9 percent to $592 billion.
The increase marks the seventh consecutive year of rising global arms sales, continuing a pattern established in 2018. The five firms at the top of the list are all based in the US: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Boeing, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics. The report noted a surge in sales from Chinese manufacturers, with the eight Chinese arms companies on the list increasing sales by 6.3 percent from the year before. South Korean manufacturers also saw above-average sales in 2021, while Israeli and Turkish arms manufacturers saw the highest growth in weapons sales of any worldwide in 2021.