In Geopolitics Today: Monday, December 26th
France Appeals for Reduced EU Security dependence on the US, New Nuclear Posture Review Released by the United States, and other stories.
Seven People with Links to the UK Arrested in Iran Over Protests
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have reportedly arrested seven individuals with links to the UK in connection with anti-government protests. According to Reuters, the arrested individuals, who include dual nationals, were detained as they were trying to leave Iran.
According to a statement from Iranian state media, the seven individuals detained were identified as leaders of the protests. They were arrested by the intelligence services of Iran's Revolutionary Guards while attempting to leave the country. The protests, in which demonstrators have called for the end of Iran's ruling theocracy, have posed a major challenge to the Islamic Republic. The government has accused the protesters of seeking to destroy public property and has claimed that they are being trained and armed by the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
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France Appeals for Reduced EU Security Dependence on the US
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for increased European autonomy in defence and security, arguing against dependency on the United States. He has urged Washington to support and encourage its European allies in efforts to attain greater self-sufficiency in defence. Macron's calls for increased European autonomy have so far received little support in Washington or other European capitals.
It may be in the best interest of both the United States and its European allies for Europe to take on a larger role in its own security. European countries are capable of defending themselves, particularly against a weakened Russia, and the US can support this by granting European autonomy. However, this would only benefit the US if its NATO allies align their policies with Washington in the long term. Otherwise, the US risks enabling the growth of a potential competitor. The US should also be aware that it is unlikely to secure larger spending commitments from its allies without allowing them more autonomy within NATO. Despite criticism, French President Emmanuel Macron has maintained open lines of communication with Russia, believing that there should be channels available for de-escalation and negotiation in the event that the Russian government seeks a way to resolve its current conflicts.
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Procurement Lessons from the War in Ukraine
The Ukraine War has highlighted the importance of sufficient stockpiles of weapons and production capacity for additional munitions. During the war, NATO nations, particularly the United States, have continually supplied Ukraine with the munitions and weapons it needs to fight against Russia. Now, stockpiles are low.
Artillery continues to shape outcomes on the battlefield as Ukrainian UAVs have been used to locate Russian artillery. This allows Ukraine’s artillery units to engage newly identified targets. The Ukrainian use of guided rockets also allowed them to locate and destroy Russian artillery munitions storage sites, disrupting the Russian artillery advantage. Continued support for Ukraine will necessitate increased production of 155mm shells, which the United States and other NATO member states are working to achieve.
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Huge Winter Storm Threatens Disruption in LNG Market
A winter storm in the United States could disrupt global supply from one of the top liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, tightening a market that has seen wild swings in prices this year. Hard-freeze warnings have been issued for all the states along the US Gulf Coast, which could delay LNG exports.
The storm could be the latest extreme event to affect the global LNG market, which has seen record prices and increased imports to Europe this year. While the US power grid has so far avoided any catastrophic failures, the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG terminals could face disruptions. Europe will likely need more LNG supply to offset low pipeline flows from Russia next year and natural gas prices in Europe will likely remain elevated.
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New Nuclear Posture Review Released by the United States
The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) has been published. The document emphasizes that the United States maintains a focus on nuclear modernization and arms control/risk reduction as essential elements of deterrence, but falls short on actions to reduce the role of nuclear weapons, which was a priority for President Joe Biden.
The new NPR recognizes new geopolitical threats, including nuclear military expansion from China and Russia, and reaffirms the nuclear modernization program, including the development of new weapons and warheads. It echoes the 2018 NPR's statement that in the event of nuclear weapons use, the US would seek to end the conflict at the lowest level of damage possible. The NPR opens the possibility of increasing the number of nuclear weapons due to Chinese and Russian nuclear modernization and expansion, and falls short on reducing the role of nuclear weapons in US defence strategy. It also reaffirms the commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the importance of extended deterrence.