In Geopolitics Today - Monday, February 7th
German and French Diplomacy On Energy & Security, Russia’s Shift Toward Asia Goes Beyond Beijing, Micronesian Nations Exit the Pacific Islands Forum
German and French Diplomacy On Energy & Security
Amid no sign of a breakthrough in the ongoing talks on European Security between Russia and the United States, leadership in Europe is seeking to engage with both the negotiating parties. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Washington to conduct talks with US President Biden while French President Emmanuel Macron is holding talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow, with energy likely to be a priority item for both European leaders.
Europe depends heavily on Russian and American energy exports. With an ongoing standoff over European security raising tensions, European energy insecurities are also raising stakes. While Macron doesn’t have the ability to achieve anything in Moscow unilaterally, he nonetheless can discuss steps toward de-escalation, and is in an apt position to do so given that France currently occupies the presidency of the Council of the EU. Germany has demonstrated a difference of opinion within NATO in its response to the crisis in Ukraine, so Scholz’s discussions with Biden are likely to include efforts at relieving some of the pressure mounting on Germany due to its less forceful approach to Russia, which involved Berlin refusing to send weapons to the Ukrainian army. Scholz’s meeting with Biden also likely included discussions on the future of Nord Stream 2.
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Russia’s Shift Toward Asia Goes Beyond Beijing
Russia is in the midst of a geo-economic pivot, whereby its commerce and infrastructure are rapidly moving towards Asia. As part of this historic shift, Russia seeks to spearhead vectors of trade in Southeast Asia, creating maritime links connecting Vladivostok with Indochina. Russia’s attempts to diversify its Asian relations and break into the ASEAN marketplace have materialised into some political and military advances, though Moscow remains on the side-lines.
Russia has been a major supplier of advanced military equipment to the region for decades, sharing especially close military ties with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Russia has been successful in increasing security ties with some partners in Southeast Asia. It has succeeded, for example, in establishing closer security ties with Vietnam. But in other areas, Russia’s security footprint in Southeast Asia remains limited. Though this could change in the future as increased competition between China and the United States could cause some ASEAN states to boost cooperation with Moscow as a means to balance against Beijing and Washington. But for now, Russia does not possess the economic means to play any major role in ASEAN markets. Trade turnover reached a peak of $23 billion in 2014 before falling to $15 billion by 2020, which pales in comparison to China’s $685 billion or South Korea’s $155 billion trade volume with ASEAN that same year.
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Micronesian Nations Exit the Pacific Islands Forum
Palau, Nauru, Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands are about to formally withdraw from the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Early last year, the five Micronesian members of the PIF made their intention to leave known, and by doing so initiated the year-long withdrawal process. While geographic and cultural differences have always caused some divides among PIF members, the five members leaving maintain that the decision to leave came after a candidate favoured by all five lost the vote for the position of Secretary General (9-8) at a meeting of the Forum.
Founded in 1971, the PIF is a trade bloc and cooperative framework established by countries in the Pacific that spans more than 8.5 million square kilometres and is home to roughly 39 million people. Palau’s president, Surangel Whipps Jr, said Micronesia had been “thoroughly and publicly disregarded,” before going on to cite a “lack of leadership” by the strongest members of the PIF. A growing competition between the US and China in the Pacific makes this region a potentially volatile one. Washington is already working to expand its military footprint into the region in a bid to contain China’s influence. On the other hand, China is eager to provide loans and development assistance across the region in return for access to local resources, markets or infrastructure facilities.
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