In Geopolitics Today: Monday, February 6th
The UK Aims to Build Indo-Pacific Ties Through Trade and Defence, Challenges in NATO's Use of Sanctions against Russia, and other stories.
The UK Aims to Build Indo-Pacific Ties Through Trade and Defence
The UK is seeking to increase its trade and defense ties in the Indo-Pacific region as part of its 2021 Integrated Review. The UK government views China as a threat to its security and interests and views the US as its most important strategic ally in the region.
The UK's engagement in the Indo-Pacific region has been welcomed by Japan, which has encouraged the UK to expand within the US' strategic framework. The UK's Conservative government has aligned itself with the US' military strategy while also maintaining economic relations with China, creating an ambivalent stance that sometimes arises in parliamentary debates. The UK has joined the AUKUS defense cooperation pact with the US and Australia, and the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called for “robust pragmatism” in dealing with China.
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Benin and Togo Face Growing Threat of Political Attacks
Jihadist groups in the Sahel region have declared jihad in Benin and Togo, two small countries with long borders that make it hard to control their northern areas. These countries, along with Ghana, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal, are facing attacks on their military posts and remote villages.
To address this threat, a report by Institut Montaigne suggests a holistic response that addresses the political, economic, and social fractures fuelling recruitment is needed. The groups have targeted these coastal countries because they offer opportunities to conduct raids and expand their territorial base. These countries also have marginalized Muslim populations due to resource conflicts and religious divides. The current efforts of the armies supported by France, the US, the EU, and a number of their African allies, have failed to bring about stability in the region.
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South Korean Efforts to Acquire Nuclear Weapons
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has caused alarm by warning that Seoul may need to develop nuclear weapons to counter North Korean nuclear threats. 71% of South Koreans now believe their military should acquire nuclear weapons, but mainstream politicians have largely stayed away from advocating for proliferation.
The growing North Korean and Chinese nuclear arsenals and the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine have worsened Seoul's security environment, allowing Yoon to brandish national security needs to win popular support for his hard line on North Korea. Preventing a potential nuclear program falls to the United States, which could convey the costs of proliferation. To acquire its own nuclear weapons, South Korea would have to withdraw from the NPT, which could have enormous costs to the international non-proliferation regime.
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Little International Will to Save the Aral Sea
The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest inland water reservoir, but since 1960 its water level has decreased due to increased demand for water for cotton production and irrigation, as well as climate change. Efforts to restore the sea have failed, and investment has shifted towards smaller, innovative projects.
The desiccation of the Aral Sea is not only an ecological disaster, but also a public health emergency, as contamination from industrial discharge and former bioweapon testing sites is causing cardiovascular diseases, psychological disabilities, and higher rates of cancer in the local population. While it is unlikely that the sea will dry up completely, the area will become hypersaline and of little value. Addressing this crisis should be a priority for future investment in the Aral Sea basin by those most affected by the crisis.
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Challenges in NATO's Use of Sanctions against Russia
The use of sanctions against Russia as a response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been central to the strategy deployed by NATO countries. Despite concerns that individual states' economic interests would hinder the coalition, these have yet to materialize.
An analysis of media reporting, government announcements, and political debates from the past 12 months highlights the political objectives and constraints faced by NATO leaders, including unity of justifications and threats, assessment of differential costs, and ambiguity of sanctions measures. Although the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy has been significant, the transition from rhetoric to reality has been challenging for NATO leaders and the consequences have been less immediate than promised. Cooperation and cohesion among Ukraine's allies remains a key pillar of the war effort against Russia.