In Geopolitics Today: Monday, February 27th
UK and EU Reach Agreement over the Trade Status of Northern Ireland, Arab States Show Support for Syria's Return to Regional Fold, and other stories.
UK and EU Reach Agreement over the Trade Status of Northern Ireland
The UK and EU have reached a new post-Brexit deal, called the Windsor Framework, aimed at resolving the trade dispute over Northern Ireland. The Northern Ireland Protocol created tensions between unionists and nationalists, with unionists arguing that it undermined their place in the UK and nationalists arguing that it threatened the peace process.
The new deal seeks to ease physical checks on goods flowing from the UK to Northern Ireland and give Northern Ireland's lawmakers more say over EU rules that apply there. The deal could improve relations between the UK and EU, which have been strained by Brexit, and protect the peace process. However, challenges remain, such as ensuring compliance with the new arrangements and securing approval from Northern Ireland's political parties. The deal's ongoing implications for the UK, EU, and peace process in Northern Ireland will require geopolitical analysis to understand.
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Prince Faisal bin Farhan's Visit to Ukraine Leads to Aid Agreement
Saudi Arabia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Ukraine where he met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and signed a $400 million aid agreement. The visit marked the first official visit for any Saudi foreign minister to Kyiv in more than 30 years and since Ukraine's independence in 1991.
The two high-level delegations signed a memorandum of understanding for the aid agreement, which included $100 million in humanitarian aid and $300 million in oil derivatives in the form of a grant from the kingdom. Prince Faisal called for a political resolution to the war with Russia and signed deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars to invest in Ukraine's post-war recovery. Both parties emphasized the importance of Saudi support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, in addition to involvement in investment, agriculture, and energy projects.
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Iranian UAV's Capable of Maximum Infrastructure Damage
A recent report published by the Conflict Armament Research that details the sophisticated multifunctional warhead of the Iranian Shahed-131 UAV, which is capable of causing maximum damage to critical infrastructure such as electricity distribution gear, while significantly impacting repair efforts.
The warhead has four lethal mechanisms that create a variety of effects to ensure maximum damage: a high-explosive core, a shaped charge (high-explosive anti-tank), rows of metal cubes packed around the explosive, and 18 shallow metal ovals arranged in rows around the outside which create aerodynamic slugs known as “Explosively Formed Projectiles.” The report is based on a January 2023 field investigation and is the first time such analysis of warheads has been released in the public domain.
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Arab States Show Support for Syria's Return to Regional Fold
A delegation from the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union recently visited Damascus to express their support for Syria's return to the Arab League, which suspended the country's membership in 2011 following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war. The delegation was led by Mohammed al-Halbousi, the Union's president, and included a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who thanked the Arab countries for their aid shipments to Syria after recent earthquakes. The visit's significance underscores the warming of relations between Damascus and Arab states after years of isolation.
This trend continued as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with Egypt's foreign minister Sameh Shoukry in Syria the following day. The visit was focused on providing aid to the Syrian people following two devastating earthquakes that hit the country and neighbouring Turkey earlier this month. Egypt has already donated 1,500 tons of aid and is looking to provide more in full coordination with the Syrian government. As Assad has consolidated his power across much of Syria, regional states have taken steps to end Damascus' isolation, with the United Arab Emirates leading the way in Arab rapprochement. These recent events suggest a potential shift in regional geopolitics, with Arab states showing a willingness to engage with Syria despite past tensions.
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Singapore to Add 8 F-35B Fighter Jets to Air Force Fleet
The Republic of Singapore will acquire eight additional F-35B fighter jets, exercising a contractual option to bring its fleet to 12 aircraft by the end of the decade. The decision was made after a full evaluation of the F-35, following increased access to the aircraft program thanks to the country's initial order of the aircraft.
The F-35B variant was likely chosen due to its vertical take-off and landing capabilities, allowing the Singaporean Air Force to reduce its reliance on long runways and mitigate the effects of an attack on its airfields. The Defense Minister of Singapore has stated that the country’s Air Force will replace its current fleet of F-16s with the F-35B, with the service to retire the F-16 fleet starting in the early 2030s. The country’s defence budget for 2023 is currently set at $13.4 billion, a 5.6% increase over last year's figure.