In Geopolitics Today - Monday, February 14th
Hopes of Political Unity Crumble in Libya, Argentina Joins China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Ukraine Embraces Cryptocurrencies to Fund Conflict
Hopes of Political Unity Crumble in Libya
Libya's internal divisions seem poised to deepen as the Libyan House of Representatives named a new prime minister while the UN-backed incumbent refuses to step down. Following the collapse of planned elections late last year, the Government of National Accord (GNA) parliament wants to take control of Libya's political future after Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah’s interim government failed to bring stability to the country. Fathi Bashagha has been sworn in as the new Prime Minister, and he flew to Tripoli with members of his parliament to try to form a new government.
The move threatens to once again split Libyan politics between two warring, parallel administrations. Dbeibah was installed in 2021 as head of the Government of National Unity, a body put in place through a UN-backed process to oversee the run-up to elections in December that never took place. Reports indicate that Dbeibah has rejected the parliament's moves, saying he will only relinquish power after a national election. As another schism develops in Libyan politics, the actions of foreign states may once again prove the deciding factor with international players still actively contesting the political climate in Libya for their own ends. Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have backed Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army while Turkey, the US, and some European countries have supported the UN-backed Tripoli government.
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Argentina Joins China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Argentina has become the first of South America’s three largest economies to sign up for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Buenos Aires and Beijing signed a memorandum of understanding during last week’s Olympic ceremonies, solidifying Argentina’s participation in China’s global infrastructure development project. Argentina is the 21st country in Latin America to join the initiative, much to the chagrin of Washington, which has sent diplomats to South American countries in order to advise them against accepting investments from China.
During their meeting, Presidents Xi and Fernandez announced a joint intent to deepen strategic cooperation in trade and fiscal policies, and agreed on a five-year plan for agricultural cooperation. Beijing reportedly agreed to invest at least $14 billion in various infrastructure projects throughout the country, with a further $9.7 billion in the pipeline. China is not only a major supplier of consumer goods to Argentina, but also a critical market for Argentina’s agriculture sector, with soybeans and beef making up its most significant exports. The BRI agreement will allow Argentina to seek financing outside the International Monetary Fund by enabling loans via the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the BRICS New Development Bank.
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Ukraine Embraces Cryptocurrencies to Fund Conflict
Over the last year, Ukraine has worked to establish itself as a cryptocurrency hub. Recent legalization and regulation measures taken surrounding digital currencies could work to allow Ukraine to become a major player in the crypto space as funds are flooding in from abroad. Low taxation and a lack of bureaucracy are attracting more individuals and businesses to invest into cryptocurrencies.
Ukraine already possesses a large pool of developers which regularly invest in cryptocurrencies, and largely support the country’s shift to facilitate digital transactions. Ukraine ranks fourth on the Global Crypto Adoption Index, with an estimated $150 million entering and leaving the country every day. In recent months, cryptocurrencies have become even more vital to Ukraine’s economy as the threat of conflict with Russia has risen, leading individuals and businesses from around the world to send funds to voluntary and government-associated groups. For example, the Ukrainian Cyber Alliance has reportedly received roughly $100,000 to fund cyberattacks on Russian forces in recent years, while another, the Myrotvorets Center — an organization closely connected to the Ukrainian government — relies on cryptocurrencies to fund its hunt for domestic enemies of the state.
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