In Geopolitics Today: Monday, February 12th
Dutch Court Orders Halt to F-35 Parts Exports to Israel, Gazprom Secures Rights to Massive Iraqi Oil Field, and other stories.
Dutch Court Orders Halt to F-35 Parts Exports to Israel
A Dutch appeals court has ordered the Netherlands government to halt exports of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel within 7 days, citing risks that the aircraft are being used to commit serious violations of international law. The ruling comes amidst growing condemnation of Israeli military operations in Gaza that have killed over 28,000 Palestinians. Israel insists it has a right to defend itself, but the court found insufficient regard for protecting Gaza civilians.
The Dutch government plans to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, arguing that restricting arms exports infringes on its foreign policy authority. But pressure is mounting from allies like Spain and the US to curb weapons transfers enabling Israeli excesses in Gaza. While the outcome may end up merely delaying the transfer of parts, the Dutch court sets a precedent for evaluating arms exports based on humanitarian obligations over diplomatic interests. For Israel, it jeopardizes F-35 supply chains critical to maintaining a qualitative military edge if alternatives aren’t secured.
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Saudi Arabia Quietly Procures Russian Air Defence System
Saudi Arabia has reportedly acquired Russia's Pantsir short-range air defence system, becoming the third country in the Middle East after the UAE and Oman to obtain this weapons system. The purchase comes despite Western sanctions on Russian arms exports, indicating Riyadh's intent to diversify arms sources and maintain cooperative ties with Moscow.
The Pantsir system provides defence against aircraft, missiles, and drones up to 36 km away. Enhanced radar and tracking capabilities allow it to engage multiple threats simultaneously. Saudi acquisition of this combat-proven platform aligns with its strategy of cultivating multi-aligned relations between the US and Russia. Although the Kingdom remains a vital US ally, its energy partnership with Russia likely precludes joining US-led sanctions. Riyadh rejects subordination to any single power by pragmatically engaging multiple global actors. The Pantsir purchase simply reinforces its underlying doctrine of strategic sovereignty.
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Ascendant Guyana Stands Up to Venezuela's Threats
As tensions flare between Guyana and Venezuela over Venezuela's longstanding territorial claim to Guyana's Essequibo region, Guyana has stood firm by insisting that the border dispute be resolved through the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Backed by allies like the US and the UK, Guyana has emerged relatively unscathed.
While risks remain and Venezuela still disputes the border, Guyana demonstrated newfound confidence and leverage, weathering Venezuelan pressure tactics that have succeeded in the past. Its global stature and geopolitical options have expanded exponentially with its rising oil wealth. Though the anarchic global system breeds uncertainty, securing its newfound energy potential would make Guyana an ascendant power while severely weakening Venezuela and its own energy exports.
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Gazprom Secures Rights to Massive Iraqi Oil Field
Russian energy giant Gazprom has been awarded a development contract for Iraq's massive Nasiriyah oil field, estimated to hold over 4 billion barrels of oil. This comes as China nears completion of the Halfaya gas project and construction of Iraq's largest oil storage facility, also located in the strategic Nasiriyah area.
China originally aimed for an aggressive takeover of Iraqi oil assets before US warnings forced a more subtle approach of stealthily securing Iraqi energy projects. With Gazprom now taking the lead at Nasiriyah while leaving the door open for Chinese refinery construction, Beijing leverages its infrastructure might to entrench economic control. China's energy use requires a stable foreign supply, so Beijing's presence in Iraqi oil and gas carries economic imperatives. For sanction-hit Russia as well, Iraqi energy partnerships provide geopolitical counterweight.
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Taiwan Deterrence Erodes
The likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is increasing due to shifts in the military balance of power and erosion of restraints that previously discouraged Beijing. For years, Taiwan's defences and the “One China” framework managed cross-strait relations enough to deter conflict. But Chinese military modernization has now tilted the balance of forces in Beijing's favour. Meanwhile, guardrails holding China back, like economic growth incentives and semiconductor dependence, have weakened.
Beijing is likely to perceive its window of opportunity to compel reunification is closing as the United States and its network of allies work to outpace Chinese military modernization. Since 2016, Washington has slowly dismantled the “One China” consensus that has managed the deep dispute over Taiwan's status. As this framework frays along with other past restraints, Beijing faces growing nationalist pressure and shrinking benefits to postponing invasion. Yet if it waits much longer, future US air and naval power could overwhelm PLA forces. This toxic mix of eroding deterrence and loosening restraints means the Chinese leadership is becoming less likely to show restraint compared to the past.
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Asian Energy Needs and the Future of US LNG Exports
While Europe's demand for gas will likely fall in the long run, Asia is set to drive most global LNG growth going forward. Asian powers may worry that US export constraints past 2030 limiting future supply options. U.S. LNG provides unique benefits like flexible contracts, pricing stability, reduced maritime transit risks, and sanctions resilience that make it attractive to buyers globally.
Even as countries pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, natural gas remains crucial to near-term energy security. While the climate impact of expanding US LNG exports depends on many complex factors, the US risks losing economic and geopolitical influence if it curtails its LNG capacity. Major Asian economies like India and Southeast Asia still rely heavily on coal and need realistic alternatives. With strong emissions policies for its production and transport, US LNG could soon supply these growing markets and support their energy transitions, even as Europe's gas demand plateaus.