In Geopolitics Today: Monday, January 23rd
Italy Plans to Diversify Away from Russian Gas by 2025, US Military-Industrial Base is Ill Prepared for War over Taiwan, and other stories.
Italy Plans to Diversify Away from Russian Gas by 2025
Italian imports of Russian natural gas are expected to be eliminated by the winter of 2024/2025, according to statements made by Claudio Descalzi, the chief executive of energy major Eni, during a recent visit to Algeria.
An agreement signed by Eni and Algerian state oil and gas firm Sonatrach last year to identify measures that would improve Algeria's energy export capacity to Europe, identify renewable energy development projects, and reduce emissions. This partnership between Italy and Algeria is becoming important for Europe, with stable flows of natural gas limiting the damage of losing Russian supplies.
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Vietnamese President Resigns, Interim President Appointed
On 17 January 2023, Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc resigned from his government and party positions, citing responsibility for corruption by senior officials under his watch as prime minister. Interim President Vo Thi Anh Xuan has taken over until a successor is formally appointed by a National Assembly vote.
The office of the president has little direct influence over party decision-making and economic policy, so the removal of Phuc is unlikely to fundamentally change Vietnam's economic policy. However, Phuc's removal is a high-profile corruption case that comes part of a strict anti-corruption campaign. The suspension suggests a possible longer-term trend of the ruling party being focused on internal control.
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German Foreign Ministry Drafting New China Policy
The German Foreign Ministry is reportedly drafting a new policy document on German-China relations going forward. According to reports, the German cabinet is expected to officially approve a plan to toughen its China policy in key areas including trade and technology ass soon as this summer.
In recent years, Germany's trade policy towards China has become more uncertain as pressure from Washington increases. The next few months could be critical for relations between the two countries, and will shape the direction of the bilateral relationship for years to come. Reportedly called the Germany China Policy, the plan being drafted includes limiting investment in China, governmental monitoring of German companies that depend on China for its business, and restricting academic exchanges.
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Turkey Threatens Sweden, Finland's NATO Accession over Protests
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has criticized Swedish authorities over the burning of a Quran by Rasmus Paludan, outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm on Saturday, which sparked three days of protests across Turkey.
Erdogan stated that Sweden and Finland must show respect for Turkey and Muslims, and that failure to do so would mean the withdrawal of support from Turkey for their joint NATO membership. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar also commented on the issue, stating that Turkey expects Sweden and Finland to fulfil their commitments and put an end to the demonstrations. Turkey continues to delay their accession, citing the need to tighten their approach to counter-terrorism over the Kurdistan Workers Party and those involved in the 2016 Turkish coup attempt.
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US Military-Industrial Base is Ill Prepared for War over Taiwan
The US defence-industrial base is reportedly not ready for a battle over Taiwan, as it would run out of key long-range, precision-guided munitions in less than one week, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The report states that US military aid to Ukraine has depleted Pentagon stockpiles and shown that the American defence industry cannot quickly surge for another major war in the Pacific. The report recommends that Washington re-examines its munitions needs and deepen its supplies, and that it remove regulatory hurdles to manufacturing with and exporting to allies.