In Geopolitics Today: Monday, January 30th
Azerbaijan Signs Power Deals with International Investors, Israel Conducts Drone Strike on Iran Ammunition Factory, and other stories.
Azerbaijan Signs Power Deals with International Investors
Azerbaijan has signed a deal with UAE's Masdar to develop 2 GW of offshore wind and green hydrogen production. The agreement also includes a commitment to develop 1 GW of onshore wind and 1 GW of solar power. The Azerbaijani government has plans to transition to renewable energy and export electricity and hydrogen to Europe.
The project is part of a package of 10 GW of green projects to be completed in the short and medium term, with a potential for 200 GW of renewable energy generation. Azerbaijan has limited domestic power demand and its existing power plants have a generating capacity of 8 GW. The country aims to meet 30% of its power demand from renewable energy sources by 2030. The deal raises questions about funding and a timeline for completion, and there are difficulties in laying an international power line across the Black Sea while there is conflict in the region.
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The US Remains Frustrated by Arab, Israeli Views on Ukraine
A resolution to the conflict in Ukraine still seems distant. The initial expectation of a quick takeover by Russia was met with strong resistance from Ukraine and condemnation from NATO, the West, and the majority of United Nations members.
Except for a few countries in the Middle East, global support has been given to Kyiv. Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, have maintained close ties with Russia for diplomatic, military, and economic reasons, and have been reluctant to join in international sanctions. Israel, which was expected to be supportive due to its close relationship with the US and democratic form of government, took an arm's-length approach and was slow to condemn the invasion.
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The EU Approves New Monitoring Mission for Armenia
The European Union (EU) will deploy a 100-person monitoring mission to Armenia's border with Azerbaijan for 2 years to strengthen stability and support EU mediation efforts. The Armenian government supports the mission as a deterrent against Azerbaijan, but the deployment is opposed by Russia and Azerbaijan.
The EU's mission marks a “new phase” in the EU's engagement with countries in the South Caucasus. Armenia's foreign minister has welcomed the mission, while Azerbaijan warned Brussels must not undermine normalization efforts and that some EU member states had taken biased approaches in the past. Russia's foreign minister called the deployment a “counterproductive” move. The peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan are being mediated by both the EU (with US support) and Russia, though there are indications that the wider confrontation between NATO and Russia is also being felt in the South Caucasus.
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Internal Disputes over Germany's National Security Strategy Continue
A dispute between Germany's chancellery and foreign ministry over the country's future national security continues. Reports suggest a strategy paper on the subject may not be presented prior to the Munich Security Conference due to disagreements on important issues.
The most recent US strategy documents designate China as the country’s primary adversary and the German government's central strategy centre, the Federal Academy for Security Policy, notes that Germany’s upcoming National Security Strategy must take such factors into consideration. The US strategy focuses on three pillars: strengthening domestic political and industrial capacities; creating strong deterrence through alliances, and combat-ready armed forces in case deterrence fails.
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Israel Conducts Drone Strike on Iran Ammunition Factory
A recent drone attack on an ammunition factory in Iran was carried out by Israel, according to the Wall Street Journal. The purpose of the strike was not specified, but it took place during continued discussions between US and Israeli officials on methods to restrict Iran's influence in the region.
In response to the strike, Iran claimed that a drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan was thwarted and the site only suffered minor damage. The Iranian Ministry of Defense stated that the attack caused no disruption to the facility's equipment and operations. The strike was believed to be the first of its kind in the new term of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the United States was reportedly not involved. The work of the strike was attributed by senior “US intelligence officials” to Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency.