In Geopolitics Today - Monday, January 31st
US Working to Facilitate Alternative Energy Supplies to Europe, Cyberattack Disables Rail Infrastructure in Belarus, North Korea Tests Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile
US Working to Facilitate Alternative Energy Supplies to Europe
The United States has asked Qatar to divert some of the country’s gas supplies to Europe in an effort to combat a looming energy crisis in Europe which is further threatened by tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The threat of US sanctions is looming over Russia, which supplies around a third of Europe's natural gas. In an effort to facilitate alternative energy supplies to its European allies, US President Joe Biden is hosting the emir of Qatar at the White House, hoping to sway the Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim into countering the power of Russia’s gas exports in Europe by diverting Qatari supplies to the continent.
Should the plan come to fruition, Qatar would send liquified natural gas (LNG) via ships to offloading terminals connecting to Europe’s gas pipeline networks. However, it is not clear whether Qatar has the capacity to divert gas to Europe, with the majority of its LNG exports going to Asia. While existing long-term contracts between Qatar and its Asian customers could be amended to facilitate such a release of supplies for Europe, any customers in Asia that agree to such amendments would want some form of compensation. Moreover, estimates suggest Qatar may only be able to divert roughly 10% of its LNG exports to Europe. In addition, regasification facilities which convert chilled LNG back into natural gas are already in use across Europe, this means there is limited regasification and storage capacity to absorb further flows of LNG from Qatar.
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Cyberattack Disables Rail Infrastructure in Belarus
Hackers belonging to a group dubbed ‘Cyber-Partisans’ say they have infected railway infrastructure in Belarus with ransomware in an apparent protest to the arrival of Russian troops in the country. The cyberattack affected a significant part of railway operations across Belarus, including ticketing, scheduling and freight deliveries, but avoided targeting security or emergency operations. The group of hackers claimed the attack was in response to the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus, which they demand must leave the country immediately.
The scope, precision and timing of the cyberattack implies a relatively sophisticated and targeted cyber operation, striking state-operated railway infrastructure while leaving other institutions and industries untouched. Anonymous NATO officers speaking to Vice signalled veiled and tacit support for the hackers, with one stating that “it’s better to keep an eye on them but let them operate on their own.” A second anonymous NATO officer linked the activist group with ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, stating that anti-Russian activists and intelligence services will target “communications, databases, and banks” should the situation in Ukraine escalate. Whether the group are operating with the support of state-run intelligence is unclear, but the attack is likely to be perceived in Minsk and Moscow as a part of a NATO effort aimed at causing disruption. Belarus last month branded the group of hackers — along with two other pro-democracy groups — as a terrorist organization.
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North Korea Tests Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile
North Korea has test-fired a powerful missile intermediate-range ballistic missile. The missile launched was the Hwasong-12, which has an estimated range of 4,500km and has the ability to carry a nuclear warhead. The latest launch means that North Korea has test-fired seven ballistic missiles in five separate weapons tests since the beginning of this year, launching almost as many missiles in the month of January as the country launched in all of last year.
This latest launch drew condemnation from governments in South Korea, Japan and the United States. The South Korean government called for an emergency National Security Council meeting in which President Moon Jae-in described the test as a possible break of North Korea’s self-imposed moratorium on the testing of longer-range missiles. Japanese Defence Minister Kishi Nobuo expressed concern that the missile was the longest-range that Pyongyang has tested since its launch of the Hwasong-15 ICBM in November 2017. In Washington, officials indicated the latest missile test was a part of an escalating series of provocations over the last several months. All three governments reaffirmed trilateral cooperation in the face of the latest missile test, which deemed signalled North Korea’s enhanced destructive power. For Pyongyang, intensified missile testing may signal a strategy of “maximum pressure” meant to achieve a change in the United States’ policy toward the country.
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