In Geopolitics Today: Monday, January 2nd
The US Removes Burkina Faso from Duty-free Trade Programme, Indonesia Tightens Palm Oil Exports, and other stories.
The US Removes Burkina Faso from Duty-free Trade Programme
The United States has removed Burkina Faso from its African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade preference program due to “concerns” about the government’s failure to follow “democratic processes.” The country has experienced two military coups in 2022 and has struggled to address attacks by armed groups.
The US has stated it will provide Burkina Faso with “clear benchmarks” for reinstatement in the trade program and will work with the government to address the issues. Ouagadougou has agreed to return to constitutional rule within 24 months according to an agreement with the West African regional bloc ECOWAS. The country has been dealing with a conflict involving armed groups that has displaced nearly two million people and caused one of the fastest-growing humanitarian crises in Africa.
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Protests Complicate Operation of Key Belt and Road Port
A de facto curfew has been imposed in Pakistan's port town of Gwadar after a crackdown on a local rights movement, slowing down a major destination of China's Belt and Road infrastructure investment.
The Gwadar Rights Movement was established in August 2021 to protest on behalf of the local population, expressing grievances about security checkpoints, deep-sea fish trawling in the area and restrictions on border trade with Iran. Since then, internet services have been suspended in the town — centre stage of the $50 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Pakistani component of the Belt and Road. The government of the southwestern province of Balochistan, where Gwadar is located, has imposed Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code — a colonial-era law that enables a ban on all kinds of rallies and protests — for one month.
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Colombia Announces Six-month Ceasefire with Rebel Groups
Colombia's government has announced a six-month bilateral ceasefire with five of the largest armed rebel groups active in the country. The groups include the National Liberation Army (ELN), the Second Marquetalia, the Central General Staff, the AGC and the Self-Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada.
Despite a peace pact signed in 2016, armed groups in Colombia remain locked in deadly disputes over drug trafficking revenues and other illegal businesses. The ceasefire, which was announced by President Gustavo Petro on New Year's Eve, will last from January 1 until June 30, 2023. At the same time, the agreement is “extendable depending on progress” in the ongoing negotiations taking place. The ceasefire will reportedly be monitored by the United Nations, a Colombian human rights investigator, and the Catholic Church.
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Israeli Strikes Temporarily Disable Damascus Airport
The Syrian army has claimed that Israel launched a missile attack on Damascus International Airport, putting it out of service and killing two soldiers. The attack, which also injured two others, is the second in seven months to hit the airport and caused material damage in the surrounding area.
Israel has previously targeted airports and ports in Syria in an effort to prevent arms shipments from Iran to militant groups opposed to Israeli interests. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that four people were killed in the attack, while the runway used for civilian flights was fixed and another, used for cargo transport, remains out of service. The attack was the first since the Israeli Defense Forces released an operational outlook for 2023, which reportedly stated that Israeli military action in Syria would remain “persistent.”
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Indonesia Tightens Palm Oil Exports
Indonesia will reduce the amount of palm oil that exporters are allowed to send overseas in relation to domestic sales in an effort to secure a sufficient and affordable cooking oil supply at home. The restrictions came into effect on 1 January 2023, with exporters now able to ship six times their domestic sales volume, down from the previous eight times.
The move is aimed at ensuring that sufficient cooking oil is available for domestic consumption in the first quarter of 2023, particularly in the run-up to the religious festivals of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr in March and April. The Indonesian government stated that it will continue to review the export ratio in relation to cooking oil availability and prices before any further decisions are to be taken on the matter. The change has caused Malaysian palm oil futures to rise in value.