In Geopolitics Today: Monday, January 15th
Nauru Switches Ties from Taiwan to China, Ukraine Claims Successful Strikes on Russian Command Aircraft, and other stories.
Nauru Switches Ties from Taiwan to China
The Pacific island nation of Nauru has switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, reducing Taipei's formal allies to just 12 countries. Nauru's government stated recognizing Beijing as “the legal government representing the whole of China” best serves its national interests. Nauru joins 10 countries ditching Taipei since President Tsai took office in 2016.
Taiwan previously cut ties with Nauru in 2002 before restoring relations in 2005 when the microstate again backed Taipei. The $237,000 in annual Taiwan-Nauru trade means minimal economic impact. Nevertheless, the shift underscores Beijing's leverage but unlikely sway over Taiwan's administration or public. Taiwan continues countering with unofficial diplomacy absent formal alliances. Each country courts Pacific nations with aid for geopolitical jockeying. China welcomed the realignment per its one-China principle.
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Russia's Planned Naval Base in Abkhazia Alarms Georgia
Russia is moving ahead with plans to establish a naval facility in the Georgia-bordering region of Abkhazia, alarming Georgian officials. Abkhazia's leader claims the base would “improve defensive capacity” for Russia and the breakaway territory it supports. This follows Russia repositioning its Black Sea fleet eastward as Ukraine's growing missile capabilities and NATO intelligence make Russian assets vulnerable to strikes.
The base could enable Russia to conduct strikes on Ukraine from Abkhazia's coast, while its depth limitations may curb the ships it can host. The scale of the planned base also signals Moscow accepts the reality of a protracted war in Ukraine. Georgia warned the move represents an “aggressive” infringement on its sovereignty. However, strong-arm policies seem to contradict its hopes for growing pro-Russian attitudes in Georgia. The Kremlin likely aims to undermine Georgia's regional influence and trade aspirations while empowering its own.
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Maldives Demands India Withdraw Troops by March
The Maldives has demanded India withdraw roughly 80 troops and a number of helicopters by March 15th. India has confirmed that talks have taken place on continued operations, but has been silent on withdrawing its forces from the country. Muizzu aims to end India's longstanding military presence and vast influence. His pivot toward Beijing follows a comprehensive strategic partnership struck there.
The islands' welcoming of rising Chinese inroads shows India's regional sway remains contested despite geographic proximity. Yet New Delhi retains equities as the Maldives' main tourism market and infrastructure partner. Its services and investments, like radar systems, may complicate an abrupt pull-out. However, with over 20% of its debt owed to China, the Maldives is economically beholden to Beijing, with its strategic calculations clearly favouring a form of distancing from India. The lingering uncertainty spotlights small states' predicament balancing powers.
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Ecuador Accepts US Military Aid Against Cartels
Facing intense criminal violence, Ecuador President Noboa has agreed to cooperate militarily with the United States, potentially expanding Washington's regional security footprint. This pivot comes after Noboa declared an “armed conflict” against ascendant cartels.
While bringing urgent aid, alignment with US counter-drug operations risks further dependence on fickle US policy priorities. Permitting foreign forces may also undermine national military institutions needing support. Moreover, deeper military bonds can translate into economic and political influence, as seen in Ecuador's past IMF deals. The crisis response signals Ecuador's difficult balancing act between sovereign interests and political necessities.
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Ukraine Claims Successful Strikes on Russian Command Aircraft
Ukraine claims it shot down a Russian A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft and damaged an Il-22M radio relay plane over the Sea of Azov on Sunday night. A top Ukrainian legislator and military officials confirmed the incidents, but Russia has yet to comment. The flights were targeting the western Azov nearing Crimea. Ukraine said the rare A-50 craft was downed shortly after entering patrol range. The Il-22M was also engaged but tried reaching an airbase before disappearing from radars.
Losing either aircraft would greatly hamper Russian command and control capabilities vital for air operations. The shoot-downs would mark Ukraine's furthest strikes on Russian aerial assets to date. They follow an ongoing campaign using NATO long-range air defences to push aircraft back from Ukrainian airspace. This possibly signals a new phase denying Russia access to critical adjoining areas. Ukraine's military leadership claimed responsibility for executing the attack, while Russia has not yet addressed the purported engagements. Either way, the incidents underscore Ukraine's expanding reach and Russia's constraints in enabling air power.
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France Orders Over 40 More Rafale Fighter Aircraft
The French government has announced a €5 billion deal with aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation and partners Thales, Safran, and MBDA to purchase 42 additional Rafale fighter jets. This order, the fifth production phase for France's Rafale program, brings the total number ordered to 234.
The new single-seat Rafales will be upgraded over time to the F4 production standard, which focuses on increased connectivity, and eventually the F5 standard slated for the 2030s. This latest contract aims to ensure France retains advanced combat fighter capabilities while awaiting the future Franco-German FCAS program in development. The Rafales will support over 7,000 jobs across the French defence industry. Officials stated the investment serves national security, sovereignty and supports the French armed forces.