In Geopolitics Today: Monday, January 29th
EU Threatens Economic Sabotage Against Hungary, US Soldiers in Syria Killed in Strikes, and other stories.
Italy Unveils $6 Billion Plan to Cultivate EU-Africa Ties
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has unveiled a $6 billion “Mattei Plan” aimed at forging stronger economic ties between Europe and Africa. The initiative looks to boost cooperation on energy, agriculture, education, and healthcare, while also mitigating factors pushing migration. It complements EU infrastructure aid plans as Brussels bets on Africa's gas reserves and development potential.
However, some African leaders questioned why local input wasn't solicited for the plan. Deeper cooperation faces doubts given China and Gulf states' inroads across much of Africa and Italy's own debt constraints. Meanwhile, Meloni pitched Rome as an energy gateway for African gas, but more investment in extraction and export facilities is required before such volumes could offset disrupted supplies from Russia. Immigration also continues surging from North Africa, testing pledges to support livelihoods and curb irregular migration flows.
Read more about this story here.
EU Threatens Economic Sabotage Against Hungary
The European Union has sparked outrage in Hungary by threatening to deliberately sabotage its economy should Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintain obstruction of a proposed $56 billion support package for Ukraine. A leaked EU document outlines market manoeuvres like cutting funds to undermine Hungary's currency and bonds, hoping to force concessions by inflicting financial pain. The coercive strategy marks a dramatic escalation in tensions after years of disputes over values with Hungary's leadership.
While the EU contends wartime urgency justifies strong-arming reluctant members, no EU member state is in a state of war. Moreover, such punitive tactics are a direct assault on Hungary's sovereignty. Regardless of necessary compromises ahead, the bitter feud highlights political and cultural fissures over Europe's future identity. For Ukraine, disarray over financial lifelines comes at a perilous moment militarily, but bloc unity appears secondary to deeper rifts. Even if Orbán ultimately relents on aid obstructions, lasting damage from the EU's economic intimidation may further estrange Hungary and constrain joint actions on other emergent crises.
Read more about this story here.
India and France Sign Sweeping Defence Production Agreements
India and France have signed major defence production agreements. The deals centre on co-manufacturing military helicopters, fighter jet engines, satellites, and submarines to enhance India's military capabilities, especially regarding border disputes with Pakistan and China. France conveyed its willingness to support India's defence industry without limits in domains spanning operations, maintenance, design, and certification.
Deepening defence ties are a consequence of converging strategic interests in an increasingly multipolar world order. For France, securing greater arms sales while boosting India's capacity to counter China advances Paris's alignment with the United States in the Indo-Pacific. For India, securing advanced European defence integrations serves the country's goal of taking up a greater role in regional affairs that matches its rising power. While partnerships with France and the Quad underscore this vision, maintaining ties with Moscow still preserves India's options. India continues balancing its strategic autonomy across an array of defence relationships among major powers.
Read more about this story here.
NATO Leaders Call for Total Societal Mobilization
Military and political leaders from NATO countries have recently warned of the potential for war with Russia. Speaking ahead of the major NATO military exercise “Steadfast Defender 2023,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius suggested the conflict could widen within 5 – 8 years. Meanwhile, Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO's military committee chair, would not rule out an uncontrollable escalation. These statements come as NATO mobilizes 90,000 troops along Russia's western flank for military exercises.
The explicit threats from Western military officials serve to rally domestic public support in NATO countries for militarization efforts, including societal changes to support total war mobilization. Pistorius and Bauer stress that whole societies, not just armies, must prepare for potential large-scale conflict. After nearly a decade of NATO readiness initiatives oriented toward exactly this great power competition, alliance leaders now aim to shake NATO member state populations from a peacetime mentality to one that embraces national military build-ups across civilian sectors.
Read more about this story here.
Russia Expands Influence as BRICS President
As Russia assumes the presidency of the BRICS bloc in 2024, it is working to expand its influence across the “Global South” or “World Majority” of developing nations. Many of these countries sympathize with Russia position that NATO powers were involved in fomenting the war in Ukraine war and remain sceptical of US leadership. Russia touts growing BRICS ties with countries like India and South Africa, while making additional overtures via energy exports and arms sales.
Russia's outreach efforts with Global South nations serve its broader strategy of countering Western-imposed isolation and sanctions. Moscow seeks to position itself as an alternative great power pole to the US, courting developing countries to resist taking sides against Moscow. However, China's rising economic influence with many of the same nations also competes with some Russian aims. Still, events like the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict have worked to further estrange the US from potential partners. Destruction in Gaza reinforce suspicions of US double standards on core issues like sovereignty and civilian protection. Global divisions appear to be solidifying along multipolar lines that extend beyond simple East vs. West binaries.
Read more about this story here.
US Soldiers in Syria Killed in Strikes
Three US soldiers were killed and over 30 injured in a drone attack on January 28th targeting a small US outpost called Tower 22 near the Syria-Jordan border. US officials blamed Iranian-backed militias for the strike, the first direct attack resulting in US casualties. An Iranian proxy group claimed responsibility but said strikes were carried out on three separate US bases.
The deadly attack now raises the risk of retaliation and further escalation between the US and Iran, amid ongoing tensions tied to a brewing Middle East war. Options include strikes on Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, or even direct action against Iranian assets supporting them. However, the complex web of regional and global relationships complicates targetting, prompting a careful consideration of potential responses. With volatile flashpoints from Yemen to Ukraine demanding attention, US leaders face critical choices that could either contain rising conflicts or unleash uncontrollable escalation cycles.