In Geopolitics Today: Monday, July 18th
Baghdad-Kurd Oil Dispute Raises Tensions, EU Agrees Gas Deal with Azerbaijan, and other stories.
Baghdad-Kurd Oil Dispute Raises Tensions
A dispute between Iraq’s federal authorities and those of the autonomous Kurdish region threatens to compromise the country’s oil industry. The nullification of oil contracts between the Kurds and four international oil companies from Canada, Norway. the United Kingdom and the United States has inflamed the row.
The dispute first came to a head in February this year when Iraq’s federal supreme court ordered authorities in the autonomous Kurdistan to hand over oil extracted from its territories to the federal government. Then, earlier this month, contracts between the Kurds and foreign firms were annulled after the oil ministry in Baghdad filed a judicial complaint. Kurdish authorities in Arbil have protested, accusing Baghdad of “unjust pressure” and announcing legal action. Iraq sits on enormous oil reserves and exports an average of 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, while production in Kurdistan amounts to roughly 450,000 barrels per day.
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Ethiopia Begins Third Filling of the GERD
Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remain stalled. a number of damages that Egypt is likely to sustain as a result of the third filling of the dam’s reservoir. Negotiations are largely stalled due to political rather than technical reasons, with Addis Ababa refusing to budge on its position against the downstream countries.
The last session to diplomatically solve the crisis between the three countries was held in 2021 under the auspices of the African Union, when the sides failed to reach an agreement. Since then, Egypt and Sudan have taken the matter to the UN Security Council, which issued a statement in September 2021 urging Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to resume negotiations under the AU framework, with the aim of finalizing an agreement on filling and operating the GERD. However, no concrete action by any members of the Security Council has been taken thus far, and the dispute remains unsolved as regional deadlock and international apathy prevent a diplomatic resolution.
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EU Agrees Gas Deal with Azerbaijan
The European Union has signed a natural gas sale and purchase agreement with Azerbaijan. The deal promises to support bilateral trade of natural gas via the Southern Gas Corridor, and see 20 billion cubic meters of gas delivered to the EU annually by 2027.
The EU is rushing to secure new gas supplies as it seeks to end dependence on Russia. The EU’s deal with Azerbaijan will see Baku double its gas deliveries to “at least” 20 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2027, up from 8.1 bcm in 2021. The agreement includes an increase in investments in Azerbaijan made by the EU valued at €60 million, and also outlined proposals that will seek methane emissions cuts and boost investment into renewable energy and hydrogen.
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Tunisia-Algeria Land Border Reopens
The land borders between Tunisia and Algeria recently reopened after years of deadlock. While relations between Algeria and Tunisia have been historically warm since Algerian independence from France in 1962, recent years have seen ties deteriorate. The Tunisian-Algerian borders had been closed since March 2020, with authorities from both countries the closure was intended to limit the spread of the coronavirus.
While relations between Algeria and Tunisia have been historically warm since Algerian independence from France in 1962, recent years have seen ties deteriorate. The announcement to reopen borders is a breakthrough in the crisis between the two countries as the closure has heavily affected Tunisia. Tunisia heavily relies on the movement of people across the land border with Algeria, and this serves as a major source of tourism and commerce for Tunis. Moreover, disputes over several regional issues have complicated a restoration of positive ties, with Algeria expressing concerns over a potential normalisation of ties between Tunisia and Israel.
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