In Geopolitics Today: Monday, July 4th
Luhansk Oblast Falls to Russian Offensives, NATO’s Changing Eastern Flank Force Posture, and other stories.
Luhansk Oblast Falls to Russian Offensives
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Lysychansk, marking the fall of the last major city in the eastern Luhansk region to Russian forces. Ukrainian fighters were initially defending the city, but after the fall of Severodonetsk their position became untenable as the threat of being surrounded was all too great.
For Russia, taking complete control of Luhansk marks a military and political victory, and will no doubt allow its forces to reposition for Moscow’s still-ongoing offensive on Donetsk. The fall of Lysychansk means Sloviansk will likely the next target of Russian offensive manoeuvres they advance as part of a broader offensive on the entire Donbas. Russia’s superior artillery firepower has greatly aided its advance, and this advantage still holds true in the weeks ahead as Russian forces look to surround the cities of Sloviansk, Bakhmut and Kramatorsk.
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West African Leaders Lift Sanctions on Mali
Leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have lifted sanctions imposed on Mali after a round of discussions led to an agreement. The conclusion of talks between the military government in Mali and ECOWAS leaders will see a 24-month transition to a civilian government and a new electoral law be implemented in Mali.
The bloc imposed stiff sanctions on Mali in January after the military government refused to hold elections as ECOWAS members insisted. The sanctions targeted members of the ruling government and the transitional council, and have since crippled Mali’s economy. The country has defaulted on more than $300m of its debt in large party due to the sanctions, which cut it off from the regional financial market and the regional central bank. While the lifting of sanctions will mean will reopen and regional diplomats will return to their respective posts, ECOWAS decided to maintain individual sanctions on Mali’s government officials and uphold the suspension of Mali from ECOWAS.
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Turkey as a Potential Great Power
Turkey’s growing capabilities are gradually helping the country reach great power status. Throughout history, the Anatolian peninsula has been a place from which the projection of influence into the Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, the Caucasus, and the Middle East has been possible.
Turkey has a large army equipped with modern weaponry, as well as access to Western military technologies thanks to the perks of its membership in NATO. Plus, Turkey has a domestic military-industrial complex which manufactures satellites and unmanned systems. As a state that is seeking to reassert itself, Turkey should be expected to only align its policies with its own national interests. For Ankara, there is no need to bandwagon into coalitions as a junior partner, but it is worthwhile to deal pragmatically on a win-win basis with major stakeholders as an independent centre of power.
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NATO’s Changing Eastern Flank Force Posture
NATO officials at the Madrid summit have revived a concept which involves certain alliance countries being responsible for securing other, more vulnerable, members. The idea is part of a shift in the alliance’s force posture, and will effectively see NATO members on the eastern flank receive prepositioned equipment that any arriving troops could quickly access from storage.
The posture change aims to transform NATO’s eastern deployments from a tripwire force intended to hold up Russian forces long enough for reinforcements to arrive, to a “brick wall” approach that would deny any and all potential Russian gains. This approach will involve the creation of smaller geographic areas of responsibility along the eastern flank. Rooted in NATO’s enhanced forward presence concept, the plan envisions a French formation stationed in Romania, a German formation would operate in Lithuania and the United Kingdom would take responsibility over Estonia.
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