In Geopolitics Today: Monday, July 25th
European Energy U-Turn Angers African States, China’s Modest Military Aid to Foreign Governments, and other stories.
European Energy U-Turn Angers African States
Last year a group of prosperous industrialised nations came together for the Climate Conference in Glasgow (COP26), where the leaders present committed to halting the funding of oil and gas extraction projects abroad. This political promise meant that it would be more difficult for countries in Africa to use natural gas as a source of energy.
Now, in a desperate attempt to diversify away from Russian energy, the European Union has suddenly changed its policy by insisting on increased natural gas supplies from African countries. Sharp criticism is being raised by numerous African states, a continent where 600 million people still have no access to electricity. Natural gas is considered a suitable source of energy for rectifying this, with the least possible impact on climate. The natural gas supplying Europe from Africa is no longer available for the urgently needed supplies for the African population.
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China and Russia at the Centre of Japanese Strategic Thinking
Japan has become increasingly proactive on issues of regional order-building, security, and military capability development. Japan’s longstanding benign state of awareness and lack of involvement in regional issues has allowed the country to concentrate on economic recovery and growth, while the United States guarantees the country’s security via treaty guarantees and a number of military bases on Japanese soil.
Japan’s latest national security strategy is a departure from decades of military inertia. Now, Japan will strengthen military capabilities in the new domains of space, cyberspace, and the electromagnetic spectrum, as well as developing conventional warfighting capabilities. In the traditional domains of warfare, Japan will strive to establish maritime and air superiority in its region while also working to establish a comprehensive air and missile defence. Ultimately, Japan’s national security strategy going forward aims to bolster national military power and integrate these improved capabilities in all domains to generate synergy with allied forces.
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Drought in Western North American Threatens Industry
Several US states in the country’s west, including Arizona, California, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada and parts of Oregon and Colorado, are in the middle of a historic drought that has depleted key water sources to a frightening level as temperatures rise and wildfire risk increases. The US and Mexican governments are in a crisis mode trying to figure out how to conserve water while ensuring people still have access to it in the long-term.
The droughts in North America have caused significant concern over potential economic losses. The drought area in the US affects states producing wheat, corn and soy, with cotton production and ranching activities also severely affected. In Mexico, the government has declared a water emergency in all northern states, where at-risk industries include irrigated agriculture, ranching, mining, tourism and bottled beverages. Water sharing is one of the longest-standing areas of bilateral cooperation between Mexico and the US, and may be necessary to prevent further economic losses.
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China’s Modest Military Aid to Foreign Governments
A new RAND report exploring security frameworks employed by the United States, China, and Russia in the context of strategic competition finds that “the United States and its allies enjoy a significant competitive advantage.” As part of this report, the researchers embarked on a comprehensive assessment of Chinese military aid and found that China supplies military aid abroad is limited in capacity.
The top recipients of Chinese foreign military aid over the 2013-2018 period under study were Cambodia, with a reported $100 million pledged, and the African Union, with $100 million pledged in 2015 by Xi Jinping. In total, China provided an estimated $560 million total in military aid during 2013-2018. This figure pales in comparison to the United States, which provided an estimated $35 billion in military aid to foreign countries over the same period. Beijing’s total is also less than half of Russia’s over the same timeframe, while France and Germany each contributed almost $2 billion in 2017 alone.
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