In Geopolitics Today: Monday, June 12th
China-Arab Business Conference Yields Investment Agreements, Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles on the Rise, and other stories.
UK and US Strengthen Transatlantic Cooperation
The United Kingdom and the United States have announced the “Atlantic Declaration,” a new economic partnership aimed at strengthening transatlantic cooperation. Despite the UK's setback in securing a comprehensive free trade agreement, the declaration includes smaller deals benefiting UK carmakers. Defence cooperation is also covered, with the UK designated as a “domestic source” for US defence contractors.
The Atlantic Declaration spans areas of defence, critical minerals, nuclear power, supply chain resilience, and sensitive technologies. It promotes data protection and bilateral coordination in key tech sectors like AI, quantum computing, and telecoms. US President Biden also supported the UK's leading role in global AI regulation, as London prepares to host a global summit on the issue. This partnership represents a significant step in strengthening economic and security ties between the UK and the US, facilitating increased cooperation and collaboration across various sectors.
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China-Arab Business Conference Yields Investment Agreements
Saudi Arabia hosted the China-Arab business conference in Riyadh, where $10 billion worth of investment agreements were signed on the first day. The deals, primarily focused on projects within Saudi Arabia, covered sectors like technology, agriculture, renewable energy, real estate, natural resources, and tourism.
The conference reflected the growing commercial and diplomatic relations between China and Middle Eastern nations, highlighting China's increasing presence and influence in the region. The investments announced at the conference demonstrate China's deepening engagement and strategic interests in the Arab world. Despite concerns from the United States regarding China's growing involvement, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman brushed off the criticisms, emphasizing his country’s pursuit of business opportunities wherever they arise. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during his visit to Riyadh, reassured Riyadh that the United States does not expect countries to choose between China and the US.
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Colombian Government and ELN Reach Ceasefire Agreement
The Colombian government has reached a cease-fire agreement with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the country's largest remaining guerrilla group. The cease-fire will be implemented gradually and is expected to take full effect in August, lasting for six months. This development is a political victory for President Gustavo Petro, who has prioritized “total peace” since taking office. The agreement holds the potential to reduce violence in the rural areas where the ELN holds influence, particularly in the eastern provinces and along the northeast border with Venezuela.
The ceasefire agreement provides an opportunity for the government to assert its authority and implement development programs in these regions, promoting stability and addressing the root causes of the conflict. However, challenges remain, including the potential resistance of some ELN members to disarm and the presence of other armed groups in the country. Colombia previously signed a peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016, but the persistence of armed groups, including the ELN, has hindered the country's progress towards comprehensive peace. The resumption of negotiations with the ELN in 2022, shortly after President Petro took office, has paved the way for this crucial cease-fire agreement.
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India and Germany Sign 4.8 Billion-Euro Submarine Deal
Indian shipbuilder Mazagon Dock has signed a memorandum of understanding with Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems for a 4.8 billion-euro deal to construct conventional submarines in India. The collaboration supports India's “Make in India” initiative, aiming to reduce dependence on costly military imports and boost local defence manufacturing. The agreement will help modernize the Indian navy's ageing submarine fleet and enhance the country’s maritime capabilities.
With declining Russian arms imports, this partnership reflects India's diversification of defence partnerships and its efforts to expand domestic defence production. The deal is expected to be finalized by the end of 2023 and signifies a significant shift in India's defence procurement strategy. The submarine collaboration between Mazagon Dock and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems not only strengthens India's defence sector, but also deepens the strategic partnership between India and Germany. As India aims to modernize its naval forces and assert its presence in the region, this collaboration represents a key step in bolstering its maritime capabilities.
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Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles on the Rise
A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that tensions between major powers are fuelling an expansion and modernization of nuclear arsenals. The report indicates that an additional 86 warheads were deployed over the past year, bringing the total number of active nuclear weapons worldwide to 9,576. China accounted for the largest increase, adding 60 warheads to reach a total of 410 nuclear weapons. Russia deployed 12 additional warheads, while India, Pakistan, and North Korea accounted for the rest of the increase.
Despite China's rapid rise, the United States and Russia continue to possess the majority of the world's deployed nuclear weapons, with 85 percent of the world’s total stockpile deployed by the two powers. Both countries have plans to invest heavily in the modernization of their nuclear arsenals as both take steps to reduce their compliance with the New START Treaty, which expires in 2026 and limits the number of deployed warheads. The report highlights the elevated risk of nuclear weapons being used in combat for the first time since World War II, underscoring the urgency for international efforts to curb nuclear proliferation.