In Geopolitics Today - Monday, June 28th
Russia Faces Competition in the Caspian Sea Going Forward and Brunei Releases Latest Defence White Paper
Russia Faces Competition in the Caspian Sea Going Forward
While the Russian Caspian Flotilla has long been the dominant naval force on the Caspian Sea, things are quickly changing. Four other littoral states of the Caspian — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan — have been boosting their naval capabilities, all with an eye on future access to oil and natural gas resources.
The Russian Caspian Flotilla is currently composed of only 27 major vessels, with Russia having shifted some of its Caspian-based ships to the Sea of Azov via the Volga–Don Canal. Russia’s redeployment of some of its Caspian naval assets has led to a scenario in which Russia may no longer be the dominant naval power in the Caspian Sea.
Azerbaijan has modernised its Caspian fleet through the purchases of advanced ships from Israel and Turkey, and now possesses a fleet of roughly 44 vessels. While many of these vessels are smaller than ships in the Caspian Flotilla, many of them are more advanced and heavily armed. And Azerbaijan is not the only littoral Caspian Sea power bolstering its capabilities.
Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have all made significant investments into their respective Caspian fleets. Kazakhstan wields even more ships than either Russia or Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan may be the most capable of the littoral powers, having increased its Caspian presence to the point of almost rivalling the Russian presence. And Iran, while less advanced than the others and operating with naval assets in desperate need of modernisation, has also been bolstering its presence on the Caspian.
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Brunei Releases Latest Defence White Paper
At the end of May, Brunei released the latest iteration of its defence white paper. The Defense White Paper 2021 was launched by Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah and other officials in celebration of the diamond jubilee of the Royal Brunei Air Force, with the ceremony taking place at the Brunei Arts and Handicraft Training Center in Bandar Seri Begawan.
Though the oil-rich sultanate is often overlooked, it does possess the capabilities to exert its own influence in a variety of ways. Brunei has been a claimant in the South China Sea disputes, advancing the interests of the state by continually restating its historical rights in the region in order to maintain its claims under international law. Brunei has also developed certain capabilities necessary to combat counterterrorism at home, and has been a very active member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), particularly regarding issues of security.
This latest white paper comes at a time when the Southeast Asian nation will have to navigate a tense regional environment, with China and the US seemingly unwilling to wind down their combative rhetoric. But the document recognises this reality, and the path it outlines signifies that Brunei will seek to work closer with both the US and China in order to realise its own national development. To achieve this, policymakers in Brunei will have to carefully consider its policies to ensure that neither China nor the US is perceived to be favoured above the other.
On the whole, the document builds on existing foundations while also making some notable changes, including a new focus on grey zone threats, joint operations, and a push for greater self-reliance.
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