In Geopolitics Today: Monday, March 25th
UK Attributes Cyberattacks to China, Somali Piracy Resurges as Red Sea Attacks Divert Attention, and other stories.
India Has Deepened Strategic Ties with West Asia
The last five years have seen a significant expansion of India's strategic engagement with West Asia. Despite facing unprecedented challenges, India managed to skilfully strengthen its partnerships in the region. One of the most notable developments was the deepening of strategic convergence between India and West Asian nations. India signed strategic partnership agreements with Saudi Arabia in 2019 and Egypt in 2023, while also enhancing the scope and depth of existing partnerships with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman. Modi's personal rapport with regional leaders played a crucial role in fostering closer ties.
Energy security remained a cornerstone of India's engagement with West Asia, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE being the top three exporters of crude oil to India during this period. Long-term deals, such as the $78 billion LNG agreement with Qatar in 2024 and the strategic oil reserve agreement with the UAE, helped secure India's energy needs. Beyond energy, India sought to expand economic ties through trade and investments. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed with the UAE in 2022 was a major milestone, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $115 billion within five years. Investments from West Asia into India also grew steadily, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia pledging significant investments in various sectors. India's growing strategic convergence with West Asia reflects its rising global stature and the region's recognition of India as a reliable partner.
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UK Attributes Cyberattacks to China
The UK has publicly attributed two cyber campaigns targeting its elections watchdog and parliamentarians to actors affiliated with the Chinese government, marking a significant development in the bilateral relationship. The National Cyber Security Centre assessed that a Chinese state-affiliated entity likely conducted the 2021-2022 attack on the Electoral Commission, while the group APT31, allegedly operating on behalf of Chinese intelligence, almost certainly targeted lawmakers in 2021.
In response, the UK announced sanctions on two APT31 members and a Chinese company, summoning the Chinese ambassador and raising the issue with China's foreign minister. China denied the accusations, dismissing them as malicious slander. The public attribution and sanctions reflect a growing willingness to confront China over alleged malign activities in cyberspace. However, this approach also risks escalating tensions and further straining the already complex relationship between China and Western powers. For the UK, the incident presents a challenge in balancing its desire to hold China accountable with the need to maintain economic ties. China is the UK's third-largest trading partner, and many UK-based businesses have significant interests in the Chinese market.
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Philippines Summons Chinese Envoy Over South China Sea Incident
The Philippines has summoned China's ambassador in Manila to protest an incident in the disputed South China Sea that left three Filipino soldiers wounded and a resupply vessel damaged. The diplomatic move comes amid heightened tensions between the two countries over competing territorial claims in the resource-rich waters.
The incident occurred on March 5, 2024, near the Second Thomas Shoal, where a small contingent of Philippine Navy and Marines is stationed on a marooned warship, the BRP Sierra Madre (LT-57). According to Philippine authorities, Chinese Coast Guard vessels fired water cannons at the Unaizah Mae 4, which was attempting to deliver supplies to the outpost. The Philippines said the attack wounded three soldiers and caused severe damage to the vessel, rendering it inoperable. The Second Thomas Shoal has been a particular flashpoint in recent years, with China seeking to assert control over the area and prevent the Philippines from resupplying its troops stationed there. The Philippines, with the backing of the United States, has sought to maintain its presence at the shoal.
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UN Security Council Adopts Resolution Demanding Gaza Ceasefire
The United Nations Security Council has passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza for the month of Ramadan and the unconditional release of all hostages, with 14 members voting in favour and the United States abstaining. The US abstention marks a shift from its previous position, having vetoed three earlier draft resolutions.
While the resolution represents a significant step towards ending the conflict, its implementation remains uncertain. The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on UN member states to work towards a permanent ceasefire that extends beyond Ramadan, secures the entry of aid, and addresses the plight of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield blamed Hamas for the delay in passing a ceasefire resolution, citing the group's failure to agree to the release of hostages. Russia and China, who had previously vetoed US-led draft resolutions, welcomed the adoption of the text. Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia expressed disappointment that his delegation's proposal to include the word “permanent” in the ceasefire clause did not make it through. Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun accused the US of obstructing the Council's efforts.
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Ukraine Faces Serious Conscription Challenges
Ukraine is grappling with a shortage of soldiers as the initial wave of patriotic fervour has waned. Despite early enthusiasm that saw recruitment centres swamped with volunteers, prolonged combat and mounting casualties have dampened the eagerness to enlist. Ukraine's military needs a significant influx of fresh recruits to bolster its ranks along the 1,000-kilometre front line. However, the government faces a dilemma in balancing the urgent need for manpower with the political risks of enforcing conscription too aggressively. Efforts to pass mobilization legislation that would expand the draft have stalled in parliament.
Ukraine's struggle to muster sufficient troops through conscription poses significant challenges for its ability to withstand military pressure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has acknowledged the need for up to half a million additional soldiers, but efforts to expand the draft have been hampered by political gridlock and public resistance. The reluctance of many Ukrainians to enlist is compounded by reports from the front lines about shortages of weapons and ammunition. This has fuelled pessimism about the trajectory of the war and raised doubts about Ukraine's prospects for victory. While some lawmakers advocate for reducing the proposed length of military service to encourage volunteers, the underlying issues of war-weariness and scepticism about support persist. Ukraine's manpower deficit not only strains its ability to defend against offensives but also limits its capacity to mount counterattacks and regain lost territory.
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Somali Piracy Resurges as Red Sea Attacks Divert Attention
Pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia have spiked since November, with more than 20 attempted hijackings driving up insurance costs. The resurgence is attributed to the effects of Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, which has forced hundreds of cargo vessels to take a 4,000-mile detour around Africa. This has allowed dormant piracy hotspots, such as the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Guinea, to re-emerge. The International Maritime Organization has warned shipping companies to be on high alert and to observe stringent security practices.
The surge in piracy is expected to lead to increased shipping costs due to higher insurance premiums, with war risk premiums for Red Sea travels hitting around 1% of a ship's value. While the recent Somali piracy attacks pale in comparison to the peak of the crisis in 2011, they highlight the fragility of the security situation and the underlying factors that enable piracy to persist. The resurgence of piracy in the region has significant implications for global trade and security. The Gulf of Aden is a crucial shipping lane, with around 20,000 vessels passing through annually on their way to and from the Suez Canal. As pirates expand their operations farther into the Indian Ocean, shipping companies will need to give Somalia an even wider berth, further increasing costs and disruptions. While a return to the scale of piracy seen in 2011 seems unlikely, the current surge in attacks presents a serious challenge for navies and shipping companies in maintaining the security and stability of this maritime region.