In Geopolitics Today - Monday, March 28th
A Protracted Proxy War in Ukraine is a Real Possibility, Azerbaijan Tests the Limits of its Ceasefire with Armenia, OPEC+ Production Levels to Remain Unchanged
A Protracted Proxy War in Ukraine is a Real Possibility
In the month since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, NATO member states have flooded Ukraine with more than 17,000 anti-tank weapons, thousands of anti-aircraft missiles. and countless other supplies. While imposing punishing sanctions on Russia’s economy, billions of dollars in military assistance continue to be pledged to Ukraine, including Switchblade drones. The war in Ukraine can be approached through this lens, as the conflict has transformed into what can be considered a proxy war between select members of NATO and Russia.
Proxy wars — commonplace between the US and the Soviet Union during the cold war — are ugly and violent affairs. Proxy wars occur when a state provides material assistance to a belligerent in a war in an attempt to shape the outcome of a conflict while also limiting its own direct involvement. In many instances, proxy forces possess superior knowledge of the local terrain or population, and can minimize costs for an external power seeking to shape the outcome of a conflict. On the whole, proxy wars represent a combination of low costs, high benefits, and plausible deniability. In the case of Ukraine, the provision of NATO weapons and material support works to weaken Russia’s advance, bleeds its military budget, and degrades it’s ability to project power across Ukraine. Yet proxy wars are rarely quick or cheap, and they rarely play out without unintended consequences.
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Azerbaijan Tests the Limits of its Ceasefire with Armenia
Fighting has again escalated between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s armed forces reportedly took up new positions in contravention of a 2020 ceasefire, forcing Russia to reposition its peacekeeping forces while issuing a condemnation of Baku for violating the ceasefire. The incident comes after weeks of tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as Nagorno-Karabakh authorities accused Azerbaijan of cutting natural gas supplies to the disputed region.
Azerbaijani forces reportedly crossed the line of contact, capturing the village of Parukh and forcing the local population from the nearby village of Khramort to evacuate. The villages in question are located at Farrukh mountain in Karabakh, a lucrative geostrategic position offering a vantage point from which military operations can be less costly to conduct. The Armenian foreign ministry condemned the move, and called on Russian peacekeeping forces to ensure a withdrawal of all Azerbaijani troops back to the line of contact. Azerbaijan may be testing the capabilities and will of Russia to enforce the peace in this region as the country’s military is preoccupied with the war effort in Ukraine. Similar such incidents could work to damage the Russian peacekeeping mission going forward.
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OPEC+ Production Levels to Remain Unchanged
Despite a diplomatic effort by the United States and the United Kingdom to bring down oil prices by persuading major producers to increase supply to global markets, the OPEC+ group of nations appears determined to maintain current production levels for the month of April. The move was affirmed by the United Arab Emirates’ energy head, who reiterated his intention to uphold an agreement between OPEC and Russia (collectively known as OPEC+).
The UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei made clear that the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine should not affect the agreements of OPEC+. Since the invasion began, the US and the UK has been applying diplomatic pressure to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela — all of whom are OPEC members — for them to increase their domestic oil production as a means to bring down oil prices. Yet despite this pressure, OPEC member states have thus far declined to increase production, with the surge in oil prices greatly benefiting their own state budgets. The UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular have been reluctant to assist the US lower oil prices due to the benefits that high oil prices provide to both countries. In addition, concerns about US security guarantees moving forward, the ongoing negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal, the US military's defeat in Afghanistan, as well as political, economic and military ties to Russia contribute to the lack of engagement between the US and its Gulf allies.
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