In Geopolitics Today - Monday, March 14th
Lebanon Bans Export of Food Commodities, Greece and Turkey Work to Mend Ties, US Commits More Financial and Military Assistance to Ukraine
Lebanon Bans Export of Food Commodities
The ongoing war in Ukraine has cut wheat supplies to Lebanon, a country heavily dependent on food imports, prompting officials in Beirut to react with a ban on the export of food commodities effective immediately. A Lebanese official has warned that the will have serious food security problems “within a month or two,” as leadership scrambles to secure new supply chains for food amidst disruptions caused to Ukrainian wheat exports by the Russian seizure of Ukrainian ports and other military activity in the Black Sea.
Lebanon needs to import roughly 50,000 metric tonnes of wheat each month to cover the nation's demand for bread alone. The government in Beirut has relied heavily on imports from Ukraine in recent years to provide about two thirds of Lebanon’s entire wheat supply. The country’s severe lack of storage capacity coupled with an economic state of hyperinflation contribute to the current crisis, and the uncertainty surrounding the supply of wheat from Ukraine going forward compounds issues. The situation on the ground is dire, and the absence of immediate financial assistance or food aid from abroad could lead to a total collapse of the country’s food supply structure within weeks.
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Greece and Turkey Work to Mend Ties
Political calculations by policymakers in Greece and Turkey are rapidly changing given the transforming security environment in the nearby Black Sea. The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has instilled leaders in both Athens and Ankara with an impetus to take concrete steps toward improving political and economic ties, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently holding talks in Istanbul aimed at rapprochement.
The two countries — both members of NATO — have long been at odds, with competing maritime territorial claims in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, military posturing, the political status of Cyprus and the movement of migrants dominating relations between the two in recent years. More recently, in 2020 Greece and Turkey entered a dangerous stand-off over hydrocarbon resources and naval influence across disputed islands and maritime zones. The latest meeting between the Greek and Turkish heads of state focused on the various potential benefits that increased cooperation may bring given changing nature of the “European security architecture.” Events in the nearby Black Sea has prompted both countries to seek ways of maintaining stability and preventing an additional geopolitical crisis from developing.
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US Commits More Financial and Military Assistance to Ukraine
US President Joe Biden has signed off on a $1.5 trillion government spending bill which includes an emergency spending package of $13.6 billion that will go toward supporting Ukraine and increasing costs for Russia. In addition to supporting Ukraine’s war effort against Russia, the US government is providing Ukraine with an additional $200 million in immediate military assistance, including small arms, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons systems.
Roughly half of the $13.6 billion attached to the spending bill will be translate to military assistance for the Ukrainian armed forces, with $3.65 billion intended for weapons transfers and sales while another $3 billion will go toward supporting US forces elsewhere in Europe. Around $4 billion will go toward the State Department to aid its efforts at pushing back against Russia in both Ukraine and global markets, under which $300 million will go to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training and equipping the Ukrainian military. A portion of the $13.6 billion will support economic warfare against Russia, including efforts aimed at the seizure of assets belonging to prominent supporters of the Russian government. Moreover, a significant part of the economic assistance will pay for humanitarian relief and disaster assistance in Ukraine and neighbouring countries.
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