In Geopolitics Today: Monday, March 11th
Morocco Unveils Plan to Boost Green Hydrogen Development, Sudan's Army Rules Out Ramadan Truce, and other stories.
Morocco Unveils Plan to Boost Green Hydrogen Development
Morocco has announced a comprehensive plan, dubbed the “Morocco Offer,” to attract investments in the green hydrogen sector by allocating 1 million hectares of public land for related projects. The initiative, outlined in a decision issued by Head of Government Aziz Akhannouch, aims to position the North African nation as a competitive player in the emerging clean energy industry. In the first stage of the plan, Morocco will provide investors with 300,000 hectares of land in plots ranging from 10,000 to 30,000 hectares, depending on the size of the proposed projects. The state will ensure the proper use of this public land through contractual frameworks.
The “Morocco Offer” is designed to cover the entire green hydrogen value chain, from electricity generation using renewable sources and electrolysis to the conversion of green hydrogen into derivatives such as ammonia, methanol, and synthetic fuels. The plan also includes a range of incentives and support measures for project holders, as well as a competitive infrastructure that will be planned, deployed, developed, and maintained. Morocco's abundant sunlight and proximity to the European Union, which has set ambitious clean energy and emission reduction targets, make it an attractive destination for green hydrogen investments. Morocco's comprehensive approach and commitment to the sector could help attract the necessary investments to drive down costs and accelerate the deployment of clean hydrogen projects.
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Libyan Leaders Agree on Need for New Government
Three key Libyan leaders met in Cairo on Sunday and agreed on the necessity of forming a new unified government to oversee long-delayed elections. President of the Presidential Council Mohamed Menfi, head of the High State Council Mohamed Takala, and speaker of the House of Representatives Aguila Saleh jointly called for international support in moving the political process forward. Libya has been mired in war and instability since the 2011 NATO intervention, with the country split between rival eastern and western factions.
The agreement among these influential figures, who represent different political institutions and regions, marks a potential breakthrough in Libya's stalled transition. However, the proposed new government would need to navigate complex power dynamics and competing interests to successfully organize credible elections. Key obstacles include disputes over candidate eligibility, which derailed the planned December 2021 vote, and the reluctance of entrenched political players to risk losing power through a democratic process. The legitimacy of existing institutions, including the House of Representatives elected in 2014 and the Government of National Unity installed in 2021, remains contested.
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India Signs Free Trade Deal with EFTA Bloc
India has concluded a free trade agreement (FTA) with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), a bloc comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein. The deal is expected to bring $100 billion in investments to India over the next 15 years. In exchange, India will lift or reduce tariffs on a wide range of industrial imports from the EFTA countries. However, the agreement still needs to be ratified by all five signatories before it can take effect.
The India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA), grants EFTA nations access to India's vast and growing market of 1.4 billion people. It covers areas such as intellectual property rights and movement of professionals. Indian agricultural exporters will benefit from liberalized trade rules and tariff concessions in the EFTA zone. The agreement is a major milestone in India's efforts to boost exports and attract foreign investment, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi setting a target of $1 trillion in annual exports by 2030. The deal's potential impact is significant for both sides. For EFTA countries, it means substantially reduced tariffs on their exports to India. Norway, for example, currently faces import taxes of up to 40% on certain goods. Switzerland expects to ratify the agreement by 2025. For India, the FTA is part of a broader push to forge trade partnerships beyond its traditional allies.
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US and EU Coalitions Fend Off Saturated Drone Attack in Red Sea
Houthi forces in Yemen launched a coordinated attack involving 28 drones targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical choke point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. According to United States Central Command, all drones were intercepted by coalition ships and aircraft operating in the area as part of the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian and the EU's Operation Aspides. The incident marked a significant test for the international forces deployed to ensure freedom of navigation in the region.
French, British, Danish and likely US forces engaged the drones using a range of weaponry. While the coalition prevailed in this encounter, the threat posed by the Houthis' arsenal of low-cost drones and missiles to both military and civilian ships remains acute. The rapid expenditure of costly interceptors against cheap drones is a concern, as is the potential for Houthi strikes against US and allied bases in the region. With Iran's support, the rebels have displayed the ability to sustain attacks despite pressure, raising the risks of a lucky strike sparking a wider conflict.
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Sudan's Army Rules Out Ramadan Truce
A senior Sudanese Armed Forces general has declared that there will be no ceasefire during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan unless the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group withdraws from civilian areas. General Yasser al-Atta's statement, issued on the army's official Telegram channel, comes in response to a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for a truce during Ramadan. Recent military gains by the army in Omdurman, part of the greater Khartoum area, are a contributing factor in the decision.
The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF erupted in mid-April 2023 amid disagreements over the country's transition to civilian rule. While the RSF initially seized control of large parts of Khartoum, recent reports suggest the army has been regaining ground. International efforts to broker a ceasefire have thus far proven challenging, with previous agreements faltering amid deep-rooted animosities and power struggles. The UN Security Council resolution, backed by 14 out of 15 member states, urged all parties to seek a sustainable resolution through dialogue. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also appealed for a truce, though the mechanisms for its implementation remain unclear.
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Qosh Tepa Canal Project Deepens Central Asia's Water Woes
Afghanistan's construction of the Qosh Tepa canal on the Amu Darya River threatens to exacerbate severe water shortages in neighbouring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The $684 million project aims to transform 550,000 hectares of desert into arable land in Afghanistan's northern provinces. However, the canal's diversion of up to a third of the Amu Darya's flow could have catastrophic consequences for the water-stressed Central Asian republics.
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan heavily rely on the Amu Darya, which provides 80% of the region's accessible water resources, to sustain their agriculture-dependent economies. The Qosh Tepa canal, along with Afghanistan's planned Dasht-i-Jun hydroelectric complex, could reduce water flow to these countries by 15% or more. The loss of this precious resource would deal a severe blow to Uzbekistan's cotton industry and Turkmenistan's overall water supply. Beyond the immediate reduction in water availability, the canal project risks triggering widespread soil salinization in the region. At the heart of the issue is the lack of a comprehensive water-sharing agreement between Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbours. The current water distribution system among the Central Asian republics, based on Soviet-era agreements, does not include Afghanistan. New accords are needed to foster regional cooperation on sustainable water management and prevent the Qosh Tepa canal dispute from escalating into a wider conflict.