In Geopolitics Today: Monday, May 1st
Poland and MBDA Sign $2bn Air Defence Deal, Egypt Faces Crisis as Sudan Conflict Threatens National Interests, and other stories.
Poland and MBDA Sign $2bn Air Defence Deal
Poland has inked a $2 billion deal with UK-based MBDA to procure 22 air defence batteries equipped with Common Anti-Air Modular Missiles (CAMMs) and launchers. Dubbed PILICA+, the new system will combine MBDA's CAMM short-range radar-guided missiles with Poland's home-made autocannon and very-short-range infrared-guided missiles. PILICA+ will work as a triple-layer system commanded by a Polish control system and guided by Polish radars, engaging air and missile targets up to 25km away.
This Poland-UK collaboration is an important landmark that will boost Poland's air defence capabilities while bringing both nations' defence industries closer together. Poland will reap the benefits of using the CAMM family of missiles across multiple domains as the missiles will also equip its forthcoming naval air defence system on-board the Miecznik-class frigates. The PILICA+ program will provide capabilities to defend high-value and mobile assets, making it the largest short-range air defence acquisition program in NATO.
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Morocco and Israel's Partnership in Fishing and Water Security
Morocco's partnership with Israel has proven to be a fruitful collaboration in the field of aquaculture and water security. As Morocco aims to produce 350,000 tons of edible fish annually, the country has turned to Israeli start-ups for their expertise in sustainable food solutions. The partnership has led to the establishment of an $11 million fish farm near Tangiers, which uses low-energy and low-cost Israeli-developed technologies.
The partnership comes at a time of political tension between Morocco and the European Union over the renewal of the four-year fisheries agreement that expires in July. The partnership with Israel could make Morocco less dependent on other partners and therefore less vulnerable to disruptions caused by political tensions. Despite concerns about the impact of Morocco's support for Palestine on its relationship with Israel, the partnership remains a valuable asset for Rabat in terms of food security and water desalination, highlighting the potential for further cooperation and innovation in the realm of aquaculture.
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Egypt Faces Crisis as Sudan Conflict Threatens National Interests
Egypt is facing a complex situation as a result of the ongoing crisis in Sudan. With over 5 million Sudanese already living in Egypt, the country fears a greater influx of refugees crossing its borders, which could have serious implications for its economy and national security. Additionally, the rising activity of trafficking groups along the Sudanese-Egyptian borders has amplified the risks of terrorism and extremist groups infiltration. Egypt also faces a security threat from Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which threatens Egypt's share of the water from the Nile River.
The ongoing crisis in Sudan poses a threat to Egypt's national interests, as Sudan is a significant regional trade partner with an annual exchange of almost $1 billion between the two nations. Furthermore, Egypt has strategic plans for agricultural and animal production investments in Sudan, but the escalating conflict is putting these plans on hold indefinitely. The situation is increasingly precarious, and it remains uncertain if, how and when Egypt will take military action. However, given the significance of Sudan to Egypt's economic and strategic interests, an Egyptian military intervention in Sudan cannot be ruled out.
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Philippines and US Agree on New Military Coordination Guidelines
The President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., met with US President Joe Biden to discuss military cooperation between their countries. The two sides agreed to new military coordination guidelines that include the transfer of three C-130 aircraft to the Philippines. President Marcos has sought closer military ties with the US while also maintaining positive economic and trade ties with China. However, this balancing act cannot last long as Manila is sure to damage its relations with Beijing by facilitating a larger US military footprint near Taiwan.
The US sees the Philippines as a key ally in any attempt to counter China's claims in the South China Sea or those over Taiwan. The US is working to facilitate the Philippines as a location for storing forward-deployed rockets, missiles, and artillery systems that would be able to counter a Chinese amphibious assault. President Biden has made strengthening economic and military ties in the Indo-Pacific region a cornerstone of his foreign policy, with efforts being made to deepen military collaboration between Washington’s regional allies to facilitate a larger US military footprint around China.
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Argentina: High Inflation, Weak Currency, and Divided Government
Argentina is currently experiencing economic turmoil, with high inflation, a weak currency, and a divided government. Inflation has steadily risen over the years and reached its highest level in two decades, reaching 104% in March 2023. This is causing a decline in living standards and real wages for citizens. The Argentinian peso has also weakened against the dollar, making imports more expensive.
Argentina has great geopolitical potential, but it has been troubled by economic instability for a long time. The government remains divided, with President Alberto Fernández and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner from different factions of the Peronist party, making it challenging to pass legislation and implement policies. As a result, the economic turmoil is negatively affecting Argentina's politics. The ruling coalition is facing a strong challenge from the opposition, and there is uncertainty regarding the outcome of the election.