In Geopolitics Today: Monday, May 22nd
China Bans Micron Chips in Critical Infrastructure Projects, Sudan’s Warring Generals Agree to Seven-Day Ceasefire, and other stories.
China Bans Micron Chips in Critical Infrastructure Projects
China's Cyberspace Administration has recently banned the use of Micron Technology's memory chips in specific infrastructure projects, citing failed network security reviews. This decision, driven by national security concerns, could have implications for sectors such as telecommunications, transport, and finance. The move is a response to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, indicating China's more assertive approach in the technology sector.
The ban on Micron's products comes shortly after the G7's criticism of China's economic coercion. This move highlights Beijing's willingness to impose restrictions in the technology sector and respond aggressively to similar actions taken by the US. Chinese companies may seek alternative chip suppliers, such as South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, to fulfil their needs. While Micron's competitors may benefit from this ban, the broader impact on China's chip market remains to be seen. The ban reflects China's tightening control over regulatory processes and its response to the US' success in convincing allies to implement restrictions on China, particularly in the semiconductor industry.
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Sudan’s Warring Generals Agree to Seven-Day Ceasefire
A week-long ceasefire in Sudan, brokered by Saudi Arabia and the US, has commenced after heavy air strikes by the army in Khartoum. The ceasefire agreement, the first to be formally signed by both warring factions, aims to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid and provide a temporary respite in the conflict that has displaced over a million people.
However, there are concerns about the agreement's sustainability, as clashes and aerial attacks were reported shortly before the truce took effect. United Nations special envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, has warned that failure to respect and extend the ceasefire could escalate the conflict into an ethnic-driven crisis. Tribal mobilization and communal tensions have already been observed in certain regions. Outside powers vocally support the ceasefire through a monitoring mechanism, but the true test will be the cessation of heavy artillery and air strikes.
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China's AntonOil Signs MoU with Houthis for Oil Exploration
China's Anton Oilfield Services Group (AntonOil) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Yemen's de facto, Houthi-led government to invest in the country's oil exploration sector. The agreement follows extensive negotiations with various foreign companies aimed at attracting investment to Yemen's underdeveloped oil industry. The Yemeni Ministry of Oil and Minerals, which signed the MoU, cautioned foreign firms against engaging with the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, representing the internationally-recognized Yemeni government.
China's entry into the oil exploration deal implicitly recognizes the Houthi-led National Salvation Government (NSG), which currently maintains diplomatic relations with Iran and Syria. Saudi Arabia, engaged in a conflict with Yemen since 2014, recently sent a delegation to the Yemeni capital for peace negotiations with the NSG, indicating a potential end to the devastating conflict and increased legitimacy for the authorities in Sanaa. The Houthi movement has praised China's role in facilitating agreements that restore diplomatic relations in the region, advocating for China's important diplomatic role.
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Papua New Guinea Signs Defence Pact with the United States
Papua New Guinea has entered into a defence pact with the United States, signalling the growing significance of its strategic location and the contest for influence in the Pacific. The agreement grants the US access to Papua New Guinea's ports and airports, ostensibly to protect territorial borders. However, China's expanding presence in the region is a key driver behind deeper cooperation between the United States and Papua New Guinea.
Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape has stated that the defence pact does not impede similar agreements with other countries, including China, yet the move underscores the wider geopolitical dynamics at play in the region. The defence pact aims to enhance security cooperation and bolster Papua New Guinea's defence capabilities. As the geopolitical competition unfolds, China has expressed no objections to normal cooperation between Papua New Guinea and other nations but has cautioned some countries against engaging in geopolitical games. With its strategic location and sizable population, Papua New Guinea finds itself at the centre of a complex web of interests and alliances.
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China Considers Private Security Companies for Asset Protection
China's strategic interests in Sub-Saharan Africa extend beyond accessing raw materials, and now encompass investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and green energy. However, these endeavours come with security risks, leading China to consider the use of private security companies to protect its assets and personnel in Africa. While China has been successful in building a positive image through soft power and trade in Africa, it must approach the use of PSCs with caution to avoid damaging its reputation as a responsible global power.
China's presence in Africa is driven by its strategic objectives, including access to natural resources, consumers, a young workforce, and geopolitical influence. This presence serves to gain preferential access to resources, expand export markets, and secure diplomatic support for its international priorities. In Anglophone Africa, Chinese private security companies operate in South Sudan, South Africa, and the African Great Lakes region. While China's use of private security companies in Africa is expected to continue, it will likely be an incremental process. China may explore security cooperation with smaller African countries as testing grounds for developing alternative security solutions.