In Geopolitics Today: Monday, May 26th
Germany Authorizes Ukrainian Deep Strikes Into Russia, Iraq Sues the US Over Kurdistan Oil Contract Authorization, and other stories.
Germany Authorizes Ukrainian Deep Strikes Into Russia
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has announced that Germany has removed geographical restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine, authorizing strikes inside Russian territory. The policy reversal enables potential Taurus cruise missile strikes with 500-kilometre range, exceeding current Ukrainian capabilities by 200 kilometres through dual warheads designed to penetrate then destroy hardened targets including bridges, ammunition depots, and command centres.
Taurus missiles threaten critical Russian infrastructure including the Kerch Bridge connecting mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, forcing Moscow to reposition S-400 air defence systems from front-line support to strategic depth protection. Extended Ukrainian strike ranges create vulnerability across Russian logistics networks, ammunition storage facilities, and military airfields previously considered secure beyond 300-kilometre engagement zones. Russian doctrine emphasizes rapid escalation against existential threats, with previous massive infrastructure retaliation following Western weapons approvals. Germany's authorization forces Moscow to defend strategic depth, while Ukrainian forces gain capability to disrupt supply lines and command structures supporting frontline operations across extended territorial ranges.
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Alberta Leverages Separation Threat Against Federal Authority
Canada's Alberta has reduced referendum petition requirements to 177,000 signatures as separatist groups claim 240,000 supporters ready to force an independence vote. The province controls 84% of Canada's crude oil production, 61% of natural gas output, and strategic pipeline infrastructure connecting western energy fields to export terminals.
Alberta's departure would eliminate Canada's primary energy export capacity and create economic dependency on remaining maritime provinces. The province generates disproportionate federal revenues from 5 million residents across 660,000 square kilometres bordering Montana. Constitutional requirements for parliamentary approval and Indigenous treaty consent create implementation barriers, while energy infrastructure remains vulnerable to federal intervention. The separation movement exploits Trump's territorial pressure and trade disputes to extract resource extraction concessions from Ottawa. Alberta is an energy-rich sub-national region that is weaponizing commodity dependence and external geopolitical alignment to challenge federal control, threatening Canadian territorial integrity while advancing US strategic interests in North American energy integration.
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Iraq Sues the US Over Kurdistan Oil Contract Authorization
Iraq has filed a lawsuit against the United States, accusing Washington of allowing American companies to sign oil deals directly with the Kurdistan Regional Government without federal approval. The legal action follows Iraq's Oil Ministry warning that foreign companies operating independently in Kurdistan breach Iraqi law, with Baghdad claiming US inaction constitutes tacit approval of unauthorized development.
The constitutional dispute centres on Article 111 stating oil belongs to “all the people of Iraq” and Article 112 requiring federal-regional cooperation on existing fields, while Article 110 lists federal exclusive powers but notably excludes oil and gas. US energy firms continue operations in Kurdistan under production-sharing contracts offering favourable terms compared to Baghdad's technical service agreements. Kurdistan's oil exports through Turkey remain suspended since March 2023 following an International Chamber of Commerce ruling against Ankara for facilitating unauthorized exports. The lawsuit escalates Baghdad's enforcement efforts as international companies maintain operations despite sporadic federal pressure, with Kurdistan producing approximately 185,000 barrels per day from disputed fields containing an estimated 45 billion barrels of reserves.
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China Mediates Pakistan-Afghanistan Diplomatic Reset
Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to exchange ambassadors following May 21 Beijing talks hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, ending nearly four years of downgraded diplomatic relations. China announced the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will extend into Afghanistan under Belt and Road Initiative expansion, with trilateral ministers meeting next in Kabul. Both countries currently maintain embassies led by a chargé d'affaires, after relations soured over Pakistani drone strikes in December 2024.
Beijing is leveraging shared security threats to advance regional influence. China protects 20,000 nationals working in Pakistani infrastructure projects while expressing concern over East Turkestan Islamic Movement fighters allegedly operating from Afghanistan. The diplomatic reset counters India's warming ties with Kabul, including recent conversations between Indian and Afghan foreign ministers. China positions itself as stability guarantor while expanding economic corridors, using counterterrorism cooperation to advance Belt and Road connectivity across Central and South Asia. Pakistan prioritizes TTP elimination, while Afghanistan seeks trade integration through Chinese-mediated frameworks.
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Saudi-Kuwait Partnership Strikes Oil in Shared Border Territory
Wafra Joint Operations discovered oil in the North Wafra Wara-Burgan field within the Saudi-Kuwait Partitioned Zone, flowing 500 barrels per day of 26-27 degree API crude from a test well 5 kilometres north of the existing Wafra field. This marks the first discovery since operations resumed in the 6,000-square-kilometer neutral territory in mid-2020 after a five-year suspension due to commercial disputes. The zone contains 30 billion barrels of proven reserves and 60 trillion cubic feet of gas, shared equally between both nations under a 1922 territorial agreement.
The discovery strengthens Gulf producer control within OPEC, as Saudi Arabia accelerates output increases while demanding compliance from quota violators. Saudi Arabia leads May 2025 production hikes totalling 411,000 barrels per day, targeting member states Iraq and Kazakhstan for exceeding quotas. Kuwait pursues capacity expansion to 4 million barrels per day by 2040 through $50 billion investments, with Partitioned Zone output contributing to national targets. The find reinforces Saudi-Kuwait energy cooperation while Gulf states capture larger OPEC market share from declining African producers. Restored Partitioned Zone operations provide additional supply flexibility as both countries position themselves as reliable energy suppliers to global markets.
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US Targets Paraguay Energy Amid Brazil Espionage Fallout
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has publicly endorsed redirecting Paraguay's surplus electricity from the 14,000-megawatt Itaipu Dam to American data centres. Paraguay suspended energy negotiations with Brazil in April after discovering Brazilian intelligence agency ABIN conducted cyber espionage against Paraguayan officials. Paraguay currently consumes 12% of its energy allocation from the binational dam, selling the remainder exclusively to Brazil under treaty obligations dating to 1984.
Washington's energy proposal creates competing pressures on Paraguay's resource allocation as traditional Brazilian purchaser relationships deteriorate. The initiative intersects with China's Belt and Road projects in the region, particularly the 2,400-kilometre Bioceanic Corridor connecting Brazil's Atlantic ports to Chilean Pacific terminals through Paraguay and Argentina. US cryptocurrency firm Hive announced plans for a 100-megawatt data centre utilizing Itaipu power, practically implementing energy redirection strategies. Paraguay faces strategic choices between maintaining historical energy commitments to Brazil, accommodating US technological infrastructure demands, or supporting Chinese continental integration projects. The scandal provides Washington diplomatic leverage to reshape South American energy flows while constraining Chinese logistics operations along planned transcontinental corridors.