In Geopolitics Today - Monday, May 2nd
Azerbaijan’s Balancing Act Between Moscow and Kiev, Japan and the US to Cooperate on Semiconductor Supply Chains, Tensions Dominate Relations Between Iran and Afghanistan
Azerbaijan’s Balancing Act Between Moscow and Kiev
Azerbaijan has successfully maintained working bilateral ties with both Russia and Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began in February. Baku has taken a cautious approach to articulating the country’s position on the war, and this has allowed Azerbaijan to maintain cordial and strong relations with both Moscow and Kiev. The government in Baku is expected to continue to walk a fine line in order to avoid any potential negative consequences of supporting either power in the war.
Baku has gone to great lengths to avoid upsetting Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began. The government in Baku has continued to follow a balanced foreign policy doctrine and avoided involvement in the sanctions regime imposed on Russia by the European Union and the United States. In addition, Azerbaijan refused to vote on a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and acted in a similar fashion when the US tabled a resolution calling for Russia to be suspended from the UN Human Rights Council. On the other hand, Baku has demonstrated a desire to become a reliable partner to the European Union and the US by facilitating increased energy flows and sending non-lethal aid to Ukraine.
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Japan and the US to Cooperate on Semiconductor Supply Chains
The United States and Japan are set to deepen cooperation on the production of advance semiconductors. The two governments are reportedly close to signing an agreement which will set out a path forward for both powers as they seek to jointly produce advanced semiconductors. Japan and the US hope to close the gap with Taiwanese and South Korean companies in the production of smaller chips while simultaneously establishing supply chains that would bypass China.
As part of its strategy to contain a rising China, the government of the United States has pursued policies which work to constrain China’s technology sector. Such policies include sanctions on China’s technology companies, regulations over technology transfers, and restrictions on STEM talents. Now, Washington is seeking to bring in key allies on board its efforts to shield its own semiconductor needs from the effects of economic decoupling with China. Tech companies in both Japan and the US have at times faced challenges in securing semiconductors used in smartphones and other devices. Tokyo and Washington have become aware that a dependence on Taiwanese and other suppliers of semiconductors could lead to disruptions, and so are seeking to diversify supply chains under a framework that will also prevent these advanced technologies from reaching China.
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Tensions Dominate Relations Between Iran and Afghanistan
Instability in Afghanistan — primarily as a result of armed conflict among various factions — presents Iran with a strategic problem in its near-abroad. Last week, the border between Iran and Afghanistan was temporarily closed after fighting reportedly broke out between Iranian and Afghan troops. Iran accused the Taliban of carrying out illegal construction work on roads in Iranian territory, after which Afghanistan closed the country’s main border with Iran. This is only the second time that fighting has broken out on the Iran-Afghan border since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan.
Relations between the two have been marked by tensions before, and the two countries nearly went to war in 1998 due to the murder of Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan. Moreover, a dispute over the rights to the water flowing in the Helmand River is yet to be resolved, with both Kabul and Tehran periodically exchanging rhetoric over the issue. According to a 1972 agreement between the government of Iran and the government of Afghanistan at the time, Iran owns the rights to a certain portion of the Helmand River rights. More recently, the flow of refugees from Afghanistan has put strain on the Iranian government. Iran's Foreign Ministry has lamented that displaced Afghans “cannot continue” coming to Iran.
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