In Geopolitics Today - Monday, May 30th
Serbia and Russia Agree on Natural Gas Supply Deal, Turkey Negotiating Export Corridor with Russia and Ukraine, Vietnam Building Strong Ties with Major European Economies
Serbia and Russia Agree on Natural Gas Supply Deal
Serbia’s president has announced that he has secured an “extremely favourable” natural gas deal for his country after holding a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Vucic said that the two leaders agreed to sign a three-year natural gas supply contract that “suits the Serbian side very well.” The gas deal is expected to be signed when the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits Belgrade early next month.
Serbia receives its natural gas supplies from Russia via a pipeline that passes through Bulgaria. While Gazprom has suspended natural gas shipments to Bulgaria, the flow of natural gas to Serbia has not been disrupted, and Russia has warned that Bulgaria should avoid siphoning natural gas intended for Serbia. Such a move would prove devastating for the Serbian economy as the country is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, and its largest energy companies are under Russian majority ownership. Gazprom is the majority shareholder in the country’s sole gas storage facility while Gazprom Neft and Gazprom jointly hold a majority stake in the country’s main oil firm.
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Turkey Negotiating Export Corridor with Russia and Ukraine
Russia’s military operations and the sanctions imposed upon Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have disrupted exports of wheat and other commodities. As both are major exporters of wheat, the breakdown of grain supply chains is fuelling concerns over risks of shortages elsewhere in the world. To realise a resumption in wheat exports through the Black Sea, Turkey has stepped in to negotiate a way these shipments can safely transit to their destinations elsewhere.
Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports, and more than 20 million tons of grain are estimated to be stuck in silos at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Turkey shares a maritime border with both Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea, has good relations with both, and is therefore well-positioned to put forward a case to relieve the military pressures preventing the movement of goods from Ukraine via the Black Sea. While Turkey has criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the leadership in Ankara is trying to balance its close ties by positioning itself as a neutral mediator between the warring sides. However, other NATO member states have taken a hard-line stance on Russia, and the majority of NATO member states are indicating they would not lift sanctions (a key Russian demand) unless Russia withdraws its military forces from Ukraine entirely.
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Vietnam Building Strong Ties with Major European Economies
Vietnam has worked to establish strategic partnerships with five major European economies, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Vietnam’s defence and security cooperation with these five strategic partners has grown tremendously in recent years, and has now become a consistent element in Vietnam’s defence policy.
Vietnam uses strategic partnerships as a framework through which to build strategic trust and achieve national interests via cooperating with other powers. The strategic partnerships Vietnam has worked to develop have led to the establishment of bilateral cooperation mechanisms with these countries, promoting agreements in mutually-agreed strategic areas. These mechanisms vary, taking the form of inter-governmental committees (with Spain), joint committees (with France, Germany, Italy, and the UK), political consultation groups (with Germany, Italy, and Spain), strategic dialogues (with France, Germany and the UK), and a strategic group (with Germany). All of these mechanisms are commonly led and coordinated by Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which serves as an effective channel to maintain diplomatic contacts between countries.
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